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2017 Triple Crown Trail: A Sound of Thunder

3/26/2017

In the aftermath of Arrogate's magnificent performance in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I), Thunder Snow's thrilling win in the UAE Derby (UAE-II) has all but been forgotten. It shouldn't be. Not only was it a top-class effort in its own right, but it revealed a colt who may be in a position to make history.

It is no secret that Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai has long harbored the ambition of winning the Kentucky Derby (USA-I), but so far, American racing's Holy Grail has eluded him. Whether Thunder Snow can do what no Godolphin runner has done before is still to be determined, but this is a horse who would have to be considered a live shot if he can maintain his form. In the UAE Derby, he displayed the early foot needed in American racing to secure a good traveling position, answered with unflinching courage when asked in a long stretch drive and had the stamina to run down a quality rival who was running a bang-up race on his own account and had the shorter inside route all the way around.

Drawing a line through third-place Master Plan, who was second by a length to impressive Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (USA-II) winner Tapwrit in last December's Pulpit Stakes, would suggest that both Thunder Snow and his barely-defeated rival Epicharis would fit right up with the first flight of this year's jumbled American sophomore males, and these is no question that both can stay the Derby distance. If both come to contest the Run for the Roses, they will add an intriguing international angle to one of the most unpredictable Derbies of recent years.

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Weekend Trivia Challenge for 3/25/17

3/25/2017

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Who was the first Kentucky Derby winner to receive the now-traditional blanket of roses, and in what year did he win?

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2017 Triple Crown Trail: Another Week, Another Contender

3/20/2017

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The carousel of 3-year-old males has been revolving so rapidly this year that it's hard to get excited over another new face, no matter how good his most recent performance. So far, the only thing that's been consistent about most of this crop is a distressing inconsistency, with each hero of a few weeks sinking back into mediocrity in the next outing---assuming they last that long. Those that have raced again after their moment in the sun have at least been more fortunate than Mastery, whose career as a Kentucky Derby favorite lasted about five seconds after he crossed the line in the San Felipe Stakes (USA-II) as a dominant winner.

One hopes that unbeaten McCraken and likely Xpressbet.com Florida Derby (USA-I) favorite Gunnevera will prove the exceptions on their next outings; the former has been brilliant throughout his brief career before suffering a minor physical setback, and Gunnevera is a seasoned and honest horse who is vulnerable to an unfavorable pace scenario but nonetheless fires his shot every time. In the meantime, the latest "new kid on the block," Malagacy, admittedly looked good in winning the Rebel Stakes (USA-II) and certainly has the pedigree to be a contender. A son of 2011 Preakness Stakes (USA-I hero Shackleford out of the unraced Dehere mare Classiest Gem, he has Pleasant Colony (1981 Kentucky Derby and Preakness), Halo (sire of two Kentucky Derby winners) and Northern Dancer (1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness) as the sires of his next three dams.

Like so many of this year's prep race winners, Malagacy is a very lightly raced horse. He blew the doors off a Gulfstream Park maiden special weight by 15 lengths on January 4, earning a Thoroughbred Daily News "Rising Star" designation, then came back to win a 6.5 furlong allowance at the same track by 7 lengths. His win in the Rebel was solid and professional for such a green colt, but a perfect stalking trip with pretty even fractions against a rather uninspired group of rivals is a long flight from facing the best of the division in a crowded and contentious Derby field where the ability to produce a burst of tactical speed at the right moment is often the difference between victory and defeat.

Malagacy may come back in the Arkansas Derby (USA-I), and a good win there would certainly solidify his credentials for Kentucky. However, he probably does not need the Arkansas Derby to have enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field. That's good for trainer Todd Pletcher, who can get another race in or skip it according to what he feels his colt's best interests are, but is more problematic for those trying to get a line on just how good Malagacy really is.

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Weekend Trivia Challenge for 3/19/17

3/19/2017

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Canadian breeder E. P. Taylor considered this champion to be possibly the best horse he ever bred---high praise indeed considering the many great successes of Taylor's breeding program. Unfortunately, he left relatively little mark on pedigrees. Who was he?

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2017 Triple Crown Trail: Triumph and Heartbreak, 10 Strides Apart

3/13/2017

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In Thoroughbred racing, it can take only heartbeats to go from being on top of the worid to being crushed under its weight. So it was on Saturday for the connections of the brilliant Mastery, who saw their Kentucky Derby hopes soar and then come crashing down to earth in about two minutes. That's the time it took between the opening of the gates for the San Felipe Stakes (USA-II), which Mastery dominated in effortless fashion, and the time that Mike Smith pulled him up with a broken leg sustained perhaps 10 strides after the wire.

Fortunately, Mastery's injury appeared repairable, and it may not even be career-ending. Nonetheless, Saturday's events are a reminder of both the beauty and the fragility of these magnificent animals, and how heartbreaking the dreams associated with them can be.

The loss of Mastery from the Triple Crown trail leaves the sophomore male division in a continued jumble, with Tapwrit now having thrust himself into the picture by a sparkling win in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (USA-II). One cannot entirely overlook Iliad, either, as his clear-cut second-place finish behind Mastery suggests that he may not be limited to sprint distances. Perhaps McCraken will prove the superstar many hope to see when he makes his final Derby prep, but in a season of surprises and disappointments, who can tell?

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Weekend Trivia Challenge for 3/11/17

3/11/2017

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This equine "rock star" had his DVD biography narrated by the same voice that did VH1's Behind the Music series. A top runner on the track whose victories include one of the top races featured this weekend, he is also a blue ribbon-winning show horse. Who is he?

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Along the Lily Lane: Taking Care of Business

3/6/2017

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While the sophomore males scuffled inconclusively last weekend, a couple of well-credentialed fillies stayed right on track for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-I). Unique Bella, fresh from a laugher in the Las Virgenes Stakes (USA-II), tacked on another sixteenth of a mile and brushed off a challenge from fellow Grade I winner Abel Tasman to score handily in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (USA-III), while Miss Sky Warrior picked up her fourth consecutive win and third consecutive graded stakes triumph in the Davona Dale Stakes (USA-II) at Gulfstream Park).

The chances of these two talented young distaffers meeting up prior to the Oaks is minuscule, as Unique Bella will likely remain on the West Coast and make her next start in the Santa Anita Oaks (USA-I) on April 8. Miss Sky Warrior's next dance has yet to be decided, but the logical targets would be either the TwinSpires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (USA-II) on April 1 or the Fantasy Stakes (USA-III) at Oaklawn Park on April 14. Both races carry a purse of US$400,000, and either could put Miss Sky Warrior on a collision course with the current queen of the Fair Grounds, Farrell. At this point, Farrell seems more likely for the former race, but anything can happen with young Thoroughbreds, and it is always possible that a hiccup in Farrell's training might send her to Oaklawn instead.

Most likely, Miss Sky Warrior's connections will choose her next start based more on how her training is progressing than on the possible competition, for the daughter of Claiborne stallion First Samurai has no reason to be ducking anyone based on her resume. As the winner of the Demoiselle Stakes (USA-II) last November, she already has a win at the full Oaks distance of 9 furlongs, and she will likely emerge from the Davona Dale (her first outing since the Demoiselle) as a much fitter and sharper filly than the one who seemed to be getting a little leg-weary in deep stretch.

As for Unique Bella, while Jerry Hollendorfer might like to be seeing a little more maturity from her, neither he nor anyone else is likely to fault her competitive instincts after watching her bull her way to the front in the early going, then find another gear when Abel Tasman came to her. If all three of this season's star fillies continue taking care of business along the way, this year's Kentucky Oaks is going to be a race to watch indeed.

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2017 Triple Crown Trail: What a Difference a Day Makes

3/5/2017

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The major 3-year-old male preps of March 4 did nothing to clarify the picture in the sophomore male standings, but they put major holes in the resumes of two previously hot contenders. Both El Areeb and Irish War Cry flopped as favorites in the Gotham Stakes (USA-III) and Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (USA-II), respectively, with no obvious excuses other than being part of contested paces from the get-go. In both cases, they finished in the wake of colts who had the closing kick to take advantage of the pressured speed up front.

Gunnevera was perhaps unlucky in not finishing closer to Irish War Cry in the Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (USA-II) on February 4, as he was bumped while launching his bid on the far turn. He also may have needed the race, as his works became sharper and more focused afterward. He certainly looked the part of a fit and ready colt in the Fountain of Youth, simply inhaling his rivals in the stretch after taking the overland route around the far turn.

With eight starts now under his belt, Gunnevera is one of the more seasoned colts on this year's Triple Crown trail, and he is also among the most consistent, with a record of four wins and two seconds including two previous graded stakes wins. That's good quality, and with 2011 Florida Derby (USA-I) winner Dialed In (a son of 2003 American Horse of the Year Mineshaft) as sire and with Unbridled, Graustark and The Minstrel as the sires of his first three dams, there is little reason to believe that Gunnevera won't stay as far as colts are asked to run. Like all come-from-behind horses, he is vulnerable to traffic problems up front, but given clear sailing, he has the talent and honesty to be dangerous at any time.

J Boys Echo is a little more enigmatic; after notching his first stakes score and second victory from five starts, he could be a good horse who is developing at the right time or a flash in the pan. The son of Mineshaft looked strong in overcoming a six-length deficit while running four-wide, and like Gunnevera, has the pedigree to suggest that distance will not be a problem, but he has already gotten a good look at Gunnevera's rump when a well-beaten fourth to that colt in last November's Delta Downs Jackpot (USA-III) after earning a Thoroughbred Daily News "Rising Star" tag in his second start. He will probably make only one more start during the Triple Crown prep season, and the results of that race will probably determine whether he continues on as a contender for classic honors.

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Weekend Trivia Challenge for 3/4/2017

3/4/2017

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Although they shared an American championship at one time in their careers, there was really no rivalry between these two "rivals" as the one owned a 9-to-0 edge in outfinishing the other over the course of their careers. Who were these two horses and what championship title did they share?

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