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Big horse or big hype?

2/23/2015

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So far, there's little not to like about Royal Delta's half-brother Khozan. He's a perfect 2-for-2 and has been visually impressive both times. Bred on the same Distorted Humor/Seattle Slew line cross that produced 2002 Kentucky Derby (USA-I) and Preakness Stakes (USA-I) winner Funny Cide, he should have no trouble getting Classic distances with A.P. Indy and Lyphard as the sires of his first and second dam, respectively. He's also following a sensible progression with respect to distance and class and should be in good shape to stretch out to 8.5 or 9 furlongs in his next start against better company.

The one question about this colt is just how good he really is. You can't fault a horse for his competition, but what Khozan has faced so far certainly makes me wonder how much of his apparent brilliance is due to the weakness of his rivals. So far, none of the other 13 handsomely bred youngsters he demolished in his maiden effort has come out again and won. His five rivals in his most recent conquest had a combined record of 24 starts, 5 wins, 3 seconds and 4 thirds, and the only one with any black type, second-place Big Family, was a rather distant third in the Hutcheson Stakes (USA-III).

I can hardly blame Khozan for a leisurely final quarter of :26.50 as he was under absolutely no pressure, but the fact that the best of his pursuers needed at least two more seconds to negotiate the final quarter does not say much for the competition. Gulfstream has reportedly been playing slow much of this winter, but that slow?

The legendary Colonel E. R. Bradley used to say that he'd bet any horse that could run the final quarter of a race in :24 or better. If he were at Gulfstream this year and watching the races for 3-year-olds at a mile and over, he'd still be waiting for a play. Until something shows a bit more foot in the late going, I think I, too, will play "wait and see."
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    I'm Avalyn Hunter, an author, pedigree researcher and longtime racing fan.

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