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Mares on Monday: Kathleen O. Looks Toward the Lilies

3/7/2022

3 Comments

 
For most first-time racehorse owners, just getting a winner is a thrill like few others. For 83-year-old Pat Kearney of Winngate Stables, the thrill is far more than that. His first racehorse is the unbeaten Upstart filly Kathleen O., and on March 5, the filly put herself squarely in the picture for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) with an authoritative win in the Davona Dale Stakes Presented by FanDuel (USA-G2). Racing at the back of the pack early, Kathleen O. ran into traffic trouble going into the far turn. Once Javier Castellano tipped his mount out four-wide in upper stretch, though, the race was as good as over. Running her final quarter-mile in the neighborhood of :24.4, Kathleen O. forged to the front in a matter of strides and was simply kept about her business after that. Her efforts earned the Shug McGaughey trainee 50 points toward a starting slot in the Oaks and a 94 BRIS speed figure. Those who pay attention to such things will note that this is in the same ballpark with the exciting Honeybee Stakes (USA-G3) winner Secret Oath (see "Mares on Monday: No Secret Any More," February 28, 2022), who owns a top BRIS figure of 97.

Kathleen O. is from the second crop of Upstart (by the A.P. Indy horse Flatter), who won the 2015 Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (USA-G2) but was one of those frustrating horses who always seem to find one or two better than they when the biggest prizes are on the line, placing in six Grade 1 events. She is the first foal of of stakes-placed Quaver, whose sire Blame was the American champion older male of 2010 after defeating the great mare Zenyatta in that year's Breeders' Cup Classic (USA-G1).

Quaver was the only black-type runner from the four foals produced from her dam Skipper Tale (by Tale of the Cat), but the picture improves considerably at that point. A nice allowance-level filly, Skipper Tale is a full sister to 2007 Railbird Stakes (USA-G3) winner Ashley's Kitty and a three-quarters sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Heart Ashley (by Tale of the Cat's Grade 1-winning son Lion Heart), dam of multiple Japanese Group 3 winner Fiano Romano (by Fastnet Rock) and second dam of last year's Chandelier Stakes (USA-G2) winner, Ain't Easy (by Into Mischief). Skipper Tale is also a half sister to Gold Cup at Santa Anita (USA-G1) winner Cupid (by Tapit), who also collected three Grade 2 wins as a 3-year-old, and to listed stakes winner Indianapolis (by Medaglia d'Oro).

Skipper Tale and her siblings were produced from 2001 Railbird Stakes (USA-G2) runner-up Pretty 'n Smart, whose sire Beau Genius started 42 times and won a dozen stakes races---including the 1990 Philip H. Iselin Handicap (USA-G1)---before becoming a useful stallion. A half sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Hostess (by Chester House), Pretty 'n Smart is out of the Vice Regent mare Charge d'Affaires, whose female line traces back to the great handicap mare Gallorette.

Like many top American pedigrees nowadays, Kathleen O's background is steeped in line breeding to the great Native Dancer through his son Raise a Native (5x6x6x6x7) and his maternal grandson Northern Dancer (5x6x6x6x6x6). More immediately, she carries crosses of 4x5x5 to Raise a Native's son Mr. Prospector and 5x5 to Northern Dancer's son Vice Regent.

A leggy, gangly filly who still has some filling out to do, Kathleen O. has a long stride and lacks early speed. These characteristics force her into an off-the-pace running style that will leave her vulnerable to traffic jams. Nonetheless, she has so far had more than enough closing punch to dominate her opposition once in the clear and has proven a bit handier than her appearance might suggest, and heavy traffic is generally less of an issue in the Oaks than in the Kentucky Derby. The big filly will probably race in one more prep prior to the Oaks---McGaughey has indicated that he is leaning toward the Gulfstream Park Oaks (USA-G2) on April 2, though the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (USA-G1) on April 8 is also under consideration---and if she continues her winning ways, she will likely be among the favorites to wear the lilies on May 6.
3 Comments
Ike
3/30/2022 03:03:41 am

Let us not forget Marissa's Lady.

Reply
Avalyn Hunter
3/30/2022 01:25:20 pm

Marissa's Lady has done everything asked of her thus far except to win a race around two turns. She's definitely shown as much speed as any of the other possible Oaks contenders to this point (top BRIS figure of 95), but to take the Kentucky Oaks, she'd have to both make a marked jump up in class and stretch her speed over a furlong further than she has ever been in stakes company. That's a tall order, and she comes from a rather speed-oriented female family to boot, not to mention that Violence seems to be throwing a lot of speed. I don't know that the more stamina-oriented Cee's Tizzy as broodmare sire is enough to offset that. I think Marissa's Lady could have a graded stakes win in her not too distant future, but it will likelier be at a distance shorter than a mile, possibly even on the turf given her prowess over the all-weather surface at Turfway. She could even have a Grade 1 at Churchill Downs in her future, given that she definitely seems to like that track; I just think it's likelier to be the 2023 Derby City Distaff over seven furlongs than the 2022 Kentucky Oaks over nine.

Reply
Ike
3/30/2022 01:53:09 pm

Agree, my race mistake. You were referencing the Oaks, while I was thinking Eight Belles.

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    I'm Avalyn Hunter, an author, pedigree researcher and longtime racing fan.

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