Last week, I touched on the concept of opportunity cost in relation to book promotion efforts---the fact that every such effort consumes resources (such as time) that cannot be used for alternate purposes (such as writing). Awareness of such tradeoffs is necessary in making decisions about how to allocate your available time, energy, and money. Let us suppose that you are on the other end of the stick, however---you have already made a decision, perhaps some time ago, and now are finding that the results you are getting from a particular course of action do not seem to be worth the trade you have made. What then?
Sometimes perseverance is a winning strategy. If you have considered your position and have reason to believe that you may turn the corner with a little more effort or investment, staying the course can be worthwhile. On the other hand, if you find yourself thinking more about the loss of what you have already put into your promo effort than about taking an objective look (well, as objective as possible---we're all human) at whether or not it still has a reasonable chance of getting the results you hope for, you may be falling prey to the sunk-loss fallacy, which can keep you pouring money, time, and energy down a rat hole.
A sunk loss represents a resource that is irrevocably gone, regardless of what you do next. For example, if you buy a meal at a restaurant, you are out the cost of the meal whether you ate all of it, half of it, or one bite of it. For many of us, this represents a challenge to eat the whole thing so that we don't feel we've wasted money. But what if you find that you don't like the food even though it's decently cooked and presented, or you're on a diet and eating the entire plateful would blow your calorie count or your sodium count or whatever sky-high? (For the moment, let's drop the option of taking the leftovers home.) The wise thing to do would be to simply eat no more than is wanted and leave the rest. The problem is that most of us will focus on how much money we're "losing" by not eating the whole thing and then proceed to eat as much of it as can be stomached, which doesn't bring the money back and has a good chance of adding an upset stomach to the evening's woes.
Now, a single meal is generally a pretty small thing, and the worst we usually face from falling for the sunk-loss fallacy in this case is an unpleasant encounter with the toilet later in the evening or with the bathroom scale the next morning. When it comes to an ongoing promotional effort, however, focusing on past investment rather than on a rational look at future expectations can result in failure to cut losses and modify or ditch a strategy that clearly isn't working out. An irrational fear of loss is often a factor, even though the actual loss has already occurred; it's as though the brain doesn't recognize the loss as real until confronted with the need to decide to let it go. Pride is also often a barrier to cutting losses; who likes to admit that they made what's turned out to be a poor decision? (I sure don't.)
Marketing a book inevitably costs money, time, and energy, and completely balking at these costs is a strategy that's almost certain to result in poor sales. At the same time, every promotional effort needs regular reassessment to examine whether it's worth continuing to pursue. Awareness of the sunk-loss fallacy isn't perfect insurance against making further decisions that don't pan out as hoped, but it can at least get your decision-making focused on where it should be---on the projected future rather than on an unchangeable past.
Sometimes perseverance is a winning strategy. If you have considered your position and have reason to believe that you may turn the corner with a little more effort or investment, staying the course can be worthwhile. On the other hand, if you find yourself thinking more about the loss of what you have already put into your promo effort than about taking an objective look (well, as objective as possible---we're all human) at whether or not it still has a reasonable chance of getting the results you hope for, you may be falling prey to the sunk-loss fallacy, which can keep you pouring money, time, and energy down a rat hole.
A sunk loss represents a resource that is irrevocably gone, regardless of what you do next. For example, if you buy a meal at a restaurant, you are out the cost of the meal whether you ate all of it, half of it, or one bite of it. For many of us, this represents a challenge to eat the whole thing so that we don't feel we've wasted money. But what if you find that you don't like the food even though it's decently cooked and presented, or you're on a diet and eating the entire plateful would blow your calorie count or your sodium count or whatever sky-high? (For the moment, let's drop the option of taking the leftovers home.) The wise thing to do would be to simply eat no more than is wanted and leave the rest. The problem is that most of us will focus on how much money we're "losing" by not eating the whole thing and then proceed to eat as much of it as can be stomached, which doesn't bring the money back and has a good chance of adding an upset stomach to the evening's woes.
Now, a single meal is generally a pretty small thing, and the worst we usually face from falling for the sunk-loss fallacy in this case is an unpleasant encounter with the toilet later in the evening or with the bathroom scale the next morning. When it comes to an ongoing promotional effort, however, focusing on past investment rather than on a rational look at future expectations can result in failure to cut losses and modify or ditch a strategy that clearly isn't working out. An irrational fear of loss is often a factor, even though the actual loss has already occurred; it's as though the brain doesn't recognize the loss as real until confronted with the need to decide to let it go. Pride is also often a barrier to cutting losses; who likes to admit that they made what's turned out to be a poor decision? (I sure don't.)
Marketing a book inevitably costs money, time, and energy, and completely balking at these costs is a strategy that's almost certain to result in poor sales. At the same time, every promotional effort needs regular reassessment to examine whether it's worth continuing to pursue. Awareness of the sunk-loss fallacy isn't perfect insurance against making further decisions that don't pan out as hoped, but it can at least get your decision-making focused on where it should be---on the projected future rather than on an unchangeable past.