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2016 Triple Crown Trail: Tapping the Derby Code

4/17/2016

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It isn't that often that a single stallion has four possible Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) starters with legitimate credentials, but that is the case for Tapit as the 2016 Kentucky Derby---Presented by Yum! Brands approaches. Team Tapit includes Fountain of Youth Stakes (USA-G2) winner Mohaymen, United Arab Emirates Derby (USA-G2) winner Lani, Rebel Stakes (USA-G2) winner Cupid and the latest addition, Arkansas Derby (USA-G1) winner Creator (USA-G1). Coincidentally, all are grays, a color also borne by Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (USA-G2) winner Destin (by Giant's Causeway).

Granted, the odds for Team Tapit don't look as strong as as they did a few weeks ago, even with the addition of Creator. Cupid faded badly in the Arkansas Derby after being pressed hard on the early lead, and Mohaymen folded his tent early in the stretch drive in the Xpressbet.com Florida Derby (USA-G1) after racing wide. He may not have cared much for the drying-out Gulfstream Park track that day either, and both he and Cupid may have received valuable seasoning and learning from their experiences, but their performances were not what you want to see in a final Kentucky Derby prep.

Lani and Creator also look vulnerable, and the former may simply be too slow to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby, though it's tough to gauge how his competition in Dubai stacks up against what he'll face at Churchill Downs. As a stone-cold closer, Creator also has his vulnerabilities, and his final time of 1:50.14 for the Arkansas Derby was not impressive. Nonetheless, his final furlong in 12:66 after making up a 10-length deficit from the 6-furlong point is acceptable, and unlike some closers, he showed both the willingness and the agility to make up ground while going through traffic.

Regardless, it's been a good spring for Tapit, who is closing rapidly on California Chrome's sire Lucky Pulpit for first place in the 2016 sire standings, and it certainly isn't unthinkable that one of his offspring may secure a Classic score. If gray isn't this year's new black, it's certainly doing a good job at piling up the green.
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    I'm Avalyn Hunter, an author, pedigree researcher and longtime racing fan with a particular interest in Thoroughbred mares and their contributions to the history of the breed.

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