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Final Chapter: Another page in the story

2/28/2015

Final Chapter scored again for venerable owner-breeder John Nerud and looked pretty good doing it, scoring by six lengths in respectable time over a track that was not playing at all fast. Besides the increased maturity he showed in sitting off the pace and waiting for his jockey to signal "go," the impressive thing about the Thunder Gulch ridgling is the amount of natural speed he is showing. Considering his breeding for distance (he is a son and maternal grandson of Belmont Stakes winners), this can only bode well as he stretches out.

The only question is where Final Chapter will pop up next, but don't be surprised to see him tackle at least one more start in allowance or optional claiming company before stepping up to a stakes. John Nerud didn't get where he is by rushing horses, and any trainer he's chosen isn't likely to either.

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Friday trivia challenge for 2/27/15

2/27/2015

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Horses have been named for some unusual people and things but have also had some unusual things named for them. To beat this week's trivia challenge, identify the horses in the Library whose names were given to 1) a line of business jets, 2) a variety of wine, 3) a historic fighter plane and 4) the owner's yacht.

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Take Charge Brandi: Taking a Chance

2/25/2015

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Word is out that Willis Horton is considering entering his champion filly Take Charge Brandi in the Rebel Stakes (USA-G2), where she might meet her male counterpart American Pharoah. Frankly, why not? If she keeps to her own sex, she'll run for $150,000 in the Honeybee Stakes (USA-G3) at the same distance and track. Running against the boys, she'd make as much by finishing third in a race with a $750,000 pot. And as Horton has already pointed out, if she wins, he'll have the option of pointing her to the Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) or the Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1).

In my opinion, American owners and trainers are sometimes too conservative about running a talented filly against males, something European and Australian owners and trainers do without a second thought. There are many times when a Grade 1-class filly could be spotted to run for larger purses against males in Grade 2 or 3 races, and a solid win against males in such a race carries as much weight on a catalog page as all but the most elite of Grade 1 sex-restricted races. Since there is little evidence that running against males is more likely to result in a breakdown than running against other females, why not just go with the highest-value race that best fits a filly's aptitudes and current fitness level and looks like a reasonable spot, regardless of whether it's against males or females?

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Big horse or big hype?

2/23/2015

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So far, there's little not to like about Royal Delta's half-brother Khozan. He's a perfect 2-for-2 and has been visually impressive both times. Bred on the same Distorted Humor/Seattle Slew line cross that produced 2002 Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) and Preakness Stakes (USA-G1) winner Funny Cide, he should have no trouble getting Classic distances with A.P. Indy and Lyphard as the sires of his first and second dam, respectively. He's also following a sensible progression with respect to distance and class and should be in good shape to stretch out to 8.5 or 9 furlongs in his next start against better company.

The one question about this colt is just how good he really is. You can't fault a horse for his competition, but what Khozan has faced so far certainly makes me wonder how much of his apparent brilliance is due to the weakness of his rivals. So far, none of the other 13 handsomely bred youngsters he demolished in his maiden effort has come out again and won. His five rivals in his most recent conquest had a combined record of 24 starts, 5 wins, 3 seconds and 4 thirds, and the only one with any black type, second-place Big Family, was a rather distant third in the Hutcheson Stakes (USA-G3).

I can hardly blame Khozan for a leisurely final quarter of :26.50 as he was under absolutely no pressure, but the fact that the best of his pursuers needed at least two more seconds to negotiate the final quarter does not say much for the competition. Gulfstream has reportedly been playing slow much of this winter, but that slow?

The legendary Colonel E. R. Bradley used to say that he'd bet any horse that could run the final quarter of a race in :24 or better. If he were at Gulfstream this year and watching the races for 3-year-olds at a mile and over, he'd still be waiting for a play. Until something shows a bit more foot in the late going, I think I, too, will play "wait and see."

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Answer to Friday Trivia Challenge of 2/20/15

2/23/2015

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Black Gold never won a stakes at the Fair Grounds but died there at the age of 7 and is buried in the track infield. He was inducted into the Fair Grounds Racing Hall of Fame as part of its inaugural class in 1971. The Black Gold Stakes is slated for February 28, and the tradition of the race requires that the winning jockey lay flowers on Black Gold's grave. Good sleuthing, all of you who weighed in on this challenge!

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Courtly Dee Strikes Again

2/22/2015

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If anyone needs proof that the family of Courtly Dee remains red hot, look no further than the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park on February 21. The US$100,000 race went to Where's the Moon (by Malibu Moon), whose dam Aldiza is also the second dam of 2015 Withers Stakes (USA-G3) Far From Over. The dam of Far From Over, Alchemist, is by Malibu Moon's sire A.P. Indy, so these two promising sophomores are closely related -- uncle and nephew in human terms with respect to their descent from Aldiza and first cousins with respect to their descent from A.P. Indy.

Where's the Moon will have to step up quite a bit in class to be considered a Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) candidate, but he is moving in the right direction after losing his first four starts. He has now won two straight, and he finished the Mine That Bird like a horse that might appreciate distance, getting the final 5/16 in about :31-1/5. While not exceptional, this is at least respectable when compared to International Star, who finished out the same part of the Risen Star Stakes (USA-G2) in about :30-4/5, and is much superior to the final 5/16 of about :34 registered by Upstart in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (USA-G2).

Besides class, the other question about Where's the Moon is why he is a gelding instead of an entire given the quality of his pedigree. Given that he went for only US$27,000 at the 2013 Keeneland September yearling sale, I have to suspect a conformation issue that may compromise his ability to stay sound, especially given the tendency of the Malibu Moons to become heavy-topped with age (a tendency that gelding helps to counter, as geldings generally don't acquire the heavier neck and crest of stallions). Nonetheless, this may be a youngster to keep an eye out for.

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Friday Trivia Challenge for 2/20/15

2/20/2015

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The Fair Grounds in Louisiana is one of the oldest tracks still in use in the United States and hosts a series of important Kentucky Derby prep races culminating in the Louisiana Derby (USA-G2). Among the victors of this historic race is a member of the Fair Grounds Racing Hall of Fame who never won a stakes at the Fair Grounds, yet is the subject of an annual tradition at the track. Who is this horse, and what is the tradition in his honor?

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Answer to Friday trivia question for 2/13/15

2/16/2015

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Kim is right on the money. Gone West joined the Century Club on January 13, 2015, when his son Treble Jig won the Jebal Ali Stakes in Dubai.

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Roses from Valentine's Day?

2/15/2015

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Valentine's Day racing on the West Coast turned up two 3-year-olds who appear to have some talent but also have major question marks as potential Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) candidates. At the very least, both have a lot of ground to make up on the top hopefuls in a short period of time.

The El Camino Real Derby (USA-G3) winner Metaboss is the more experienced of the pair with five starts under his belt. Both his wins have been at 9 furlongs, and he handled the distance in the El Camino Real with complete authority, turning in a final furlong under 12 seconds. The good news is that he has demonstrated that he doesn't need a pace meltdown up front to be able to deliver a strong finishing kick, and his closing run was the more impressive in that it appeared that he had to check slightly as he was coming around the field. The bad news is that he still has to show that he can close ground on dirt and against better horses if he is to be a Kentucky Derby contender.

Although he is by the sprinter Street Boss, Metaboss has a potent stamina influence close up in Bien Bien, the sire of his second dam. Bien Bien, a son of champion turf horse Manila, showed near-championship form himself and among his other accomplishments set a course record of 1:57.75 for 10 furlongs at Hollywood. He also won the San Juan Capistrano Handicap (USA-G1) at about 14 furlongs, so lack of stamina was not an issue with him. In fact, his progeny's average winning distance of 9.3 furlongs indicates too much of a staying preference for success under American conditions.

Free House, Metaboss' broodmare sire, stayed well enough to place in all three Triple Crown races and later won the 10-furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (USA-G1) and Santa Anita Handicap (USA-G1) but is more of a question mark as to how much stamina he might have contributed. His progeny AWD is only 6.7 furlongs, though this may be a reflection of the population of mares he saw as well as his own proclivities as a sire. My best guess regarding Metaboss is that another furlong won't be a problem, but whether he will be able to transfer his turf/synthetics form to dirt is another question.

Power Jam is the other West Coast 3-year-old to turn in a strong performance on Saturday, breaking his maiden at first asking in a snappy 1:08.68 under a hand ride. Like Metaboss, he has a pedigree that suggests the possibility of stamina but doesn't guarantee it. More ominously, he is much less experienced and has little time to either gain seasoning or stretch out bit by bit.

Concord Point, Power Jam's sire, won the 9-furlong West Virginia Derby (USA-G2) but never made it back to the races after that win, leaving the question open as to whether he might have stayed further. Given that his dam has consistently thrown horses that preferred a mile or less even when bred to staying sires, it seems likelier that he would have proven a high-quality miler with the cruising speed and athleticism to tack on an extra furlong rather than a true mile-and-a-quarter horse.

On the distaff side of things, having Smart Strike and A.P. Indy as the first two damsires suggests the possibility of Classic stamina, and Power Jam is actually inbred 4x3 to A.P. Indy. Having 1992 American champion 2-year-old filly Eliza as the third dam is another question mark, however, for 8.5 furlongs proved to be the limit of her tether and only her foals by the long-winded Theatrical showed any taste for more. Power Jam's second dam Day Lily is an enigma as she did not race, though she threw foals that preferred routes by Mr. Greeley and Distorted Humor. Power Jam is the only foal to race for his dam Musical Rhythm, also unraced.

Ultimately, while Power Jam may prove he can stay further down the line, I doubt it will be in the Kentucky Derby. Asking him to develop the seasoning he needs to stretch from 6 to 10 furlongs in less than three months is a pretty tall order, and the light, quick action he showed in his maiden win seems better suited to shorter trips. He may develop the ability to relax into a more ground-eating stride as he matures and gains experience, but the Derby is probably going to come too soon for him.

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Friday Trivia Challenge for 2/13/15

2/13/2015

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It's Friday the 13th, considered an unlucky day in superstition. For one of the stallions in the Horse Library, however, it turned out to be a lucky day. This fortunate (and classy) horse entered the "Century Club" of sires that have begotten 100 or more stakes winners on Friday, January 13, 2012. Name the horse and the stakes winner who got him into the Century Club.

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<<Previous

Final Chapter: Another page in the story

Friday trivia challenge for 2/27/15

Take Charge Brandi: Taking a Chance

Big horse or big hype?

Answer to Friday Trivia Challenge of 2/20/15

Courtly Dee Strikes Again

Friday Trivia Challenge for 2/20/15

Answer to Friday trivia question for 2/13/15

Roses from Valentine's Day?

Friday Trivia Challenge for 2/13/15

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