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Mares on Monday: Lemon Muffin Gains a Sweet Win for Lukas

2/26/2024

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​When D. Wayne Lukas sent out Aaron Sones’s 3-year-old filly Lemon Muffin to contest the Honeybee Stakes (USA-G3) on February 24, a fair number of people probably wondered what Lemon Muffin was doing there instead of in a maiden special weight or even a maiden claimer. As of post time, the filly was winless in five starts and was coming off four consecutive second-place finishes in maiden special weights. Further, the field was a nice one, as might be expecting for a Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) qualifying race carrying 50 points to the victor. Out of the field of 10, four were stakes winners, including favorite West Omaha, a last-out winner of the listed Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Two more had earned black type, including Darley Alcibiades Stakes (USA-G1) third Alys Beach. As the only maiden in the field, it was small wonder that Lemon Muffin was going off at a shade over 28-1.

Lemon Muffin had two things going for her, though. One was the lifetime of experience of D. Wayne Lukes, who well knows that fillies can make very rapid progress in the spring of their 3-year-old seasons—especially fillies that have already been showing significant improvement from age 2 to age 3 and that are still shy of their actual third birthdays. (For the record, Lemon Muffin was foaled on April 4, 2021.) The other was a pedigree that clearly cried out for two turns, embodied in a filly that had never been sent more than 7 furlongs. Both were vindicated when Lemon Muffin drew off to win by 3½ lengths, clearly relishing the distance.

Bred by Mr. and Mrs. Theodore R. Kuster and the Collected Syndicate, Lemon Muffin is from the second crop of the City Zip horse Collected, who turned in his best racing performances when defeating Arrogate in the 2017 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (USA-G1) and running second to American Horse of the Year Gun Runner in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic (USA-G1). Both races were over 10 furlongs, and it is worth noting that while City Zip never won over more than 7 furlongs himself, he emulated his ancestor Blushing Groom (the broodmare sire of his sire, Carson City, and a horse City Zip distinctly resembled) by siring a number of progeny that stayed better than he himself did, Collected among them. Collected’s top runners to date are Grade 2 winners Conclude, Kalik, and Taxed, who all took their signature wins over 9 furlongs.

On the distaff side, Lemon Muffin is the ninth foal, fifth winner, and first stakes winner from Pelt, whose sire Canadian Frontier (by Gone West) did his best running over 6 furlongs and whose half brother High Stakes Player (by the multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter High Brite) did the same, both being Grade 3 winners at the distance. Pelt, however, is also a half sister to stakes winner Mather Miss, who scored her black-type win over 8½ furlongs and had an average winning distance of 8.46 furlongs. Mather Miss was sired by 1991 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Black Tie Affair, a fact that furnishes a key to Lemon Muffin’s background: she comes from a line of mares that tends to produce according to the speed/stamina proclivities of its mates. Further evidence of this is provided by Mather Miss’s daughter Arch Mistress (by 1998 Super Derby, USA-G1, winner Arch), winner of the 1800-meter Yellowwood Handicap (SAF-G3) in 2005.

Pelt was produced from Fee, whose sire Spectacular Bid can scarcely be questioned as to his two-turn credentials; among his many other feats, the 1980 American Horse of the Year set a new world record of 1:57-4/5 for 10 furlongs in the 1980 Charles S. Strub Stakes (USA-G1). A half sister to 1992 Stephen Foster Handicap (USA-G3) winner Discover (by Cox’s Ridge), Fee in turn is out of the stakes-placed Mr. Prospector mare Find, whose dam is the Nijinsky II mare Veroushka. Find is a full sister to 1988 Gardenia Stakes (USA-G2) winner Gild and a half sister to 1984 San Marcos Handicap (USA-G2) winner Lucence (by Majestic Light), and Veroushka is a half sister to 1975 American champion 3-year-old male Wajima (by Bold Ruler) and 1970 Everglades Stakes winner Naskra (by Nasram).

Lemon Muffin will need to step up her game a bit further to match up with the top fillies of her crop, but she is headed in the right direction, and an extra sixteenth of a mile seems very unlikely to be a problem for her. It is also a good sign that, although her performance in the Honeybee was the best yet of her career, it was not such an advance on her earlier races at 3 that she seems likely to regress next out; her pattern suggests steady development rather than a fluke effort. In addition, Lemon Muffin showed the tenacity to overcome adversity in a roughly run race, a desirable trait in what is likely to be a large Kentucky Oaks field. Her next race is likely to come in Oaklawn Park’s Fantasy Stakes (USA-G3) on March 30, and her results there should throw light on her further progress at a crucial time of year.
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Mares on Monday: Tarifa on Well-Trodden Path to Lilies

2/19/2024

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​On February 18, 2023, Pretty Mischievous won her first graded stakes in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (USA-G2) at the Fair Grounds for Godolphin. Eleven weeks later, she stood in the Churchill Downs winner’s circle following the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1), taking a huge step toward en eventual Eclipse Award as American champion 3-year-old filly.

Fast-forward a year to February 17, 2024, and Godolphin was again in the Fair Grounds winner’s circle following the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, but with a different filly. This time, it was Tarifa who turned in a professional performance over a drenched track to score by 2¾ lengths in what has been one of the best indicator races for the Kentucky Oaks over the last decade; five of the last ten Rachel Alexandra winners have gone on to claim the lilies.

Godolphin’s path to its most recent Oaks candidate began in November 2001, when they went to US$950,000 to secure a weanling full sister to Tiznow from the Keeneland November mixed sale. The 2000 American Horse of the Year, Tiznow had just won his unprecedented second victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (USA-G1), and the filly was also a full sister to Grade 2 winner and 1999 Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Budroyale. A third full sibling, Tizbud, was an unraced 2-year-old at that time but would go on to become a Grade 2-placed stakes winner in a career compromised by injury.

Named Tizdubai, Tiznow’s little sister showed great promise in her first two starts, winning the 2003 Sorrento Stakes (USA-G2) by four lengths, but then suffered a hock injury. She raced twice more as a 3-year-old in England, finishing unplaced each time, and retired to the broodmare ranks.

A daughter of the Grade 1-placed Relaunch stallion Cee’s Tizzy from the Seattle Song mare Cee’s Song, Tizdubai is a full sister to Tizso, who produced 2012 Haskell Invitational Stakes (USA-G1) winner Paynter to a cover by Awesome Again, and to Tizamazing, who produced 2013 Preakness Stakes (USA-G1) winner Oxbow and Grade 3-placed stakes winner Awesome Patriot to covers by Awesome Again. Thus, it was only natural that the same cross should be tried with Tizdubai, and she was booked to Awesome Again in 2016.

The resulting filly, Kite Beach, never made it to the track and was initially bred in 2020. Her first mate was Bernardini, and not simply as a matter of convenience; when bred to Tizdubai, he had sired the mare’s best racer, 2016 Bahrainian champion 3-year-old male Madinat Jumeirah. Tarifa is the result of Kite Beach’s tryst with Bernardini, and a repeat mating in 2021 is responsible for the unraced 2-year-old Josie’s Girl. Kite Beach’s most recent foal is a 2023 colt by Knicks Go.

Tarifa’s task on Saturday was probably made easier by the scratch of Silverbulletday Stakes winner West Omaha, but she left the other filly with some Oaks buzz, Untapable Stakes winner Alpine Princess, back up the track in fourth. Her task now is to progress off her victory and prove that it wasn’t simply a wet-track fluke. If she can do that, she stands a good chance of following a well-trodden path to the Kentucky Oaks winner’s circle.
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Mares on Monday: With Lily Lane Closed, Kinza Will Chart Her Own Course

2/12/2024

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​Kinza might be the best Kentucky Oaks candidate in the country who won’t be going to the Kentucky Oaks. That’s because she is in Bob Baffert’s stable, and Baffert is persona non grata at Churchill Downs. It certainly isn’t for lack of talent; on February 10, Michael Lund Petersen’s filly franked a brilliant debut win on December 29 by leading gate to wire in the one-mile Las Virgenes Stakes (USA-G3). Along the way, she turned back a bid from previously unbeaten Santa Ynez Stakes (USA-G3) winner Kopion with complete authority; 2023 Starlet Stakes (USA-G2) winner Nothing Like You was never really in the hunt and ended up fourth in the five-horse field.

Despite her impressive Beyer figure of 93 (best so far for the 3-year-old filly division), crowning Kinza as the best American 3-year-old filly of 2024 would be wildly premature; there is a lot of racing to go, and more than one filly that shone at Santa Anita in the winter has found a rude welcome waiting for her when brought east to Kentucky or New York. Nonetheless, this was a good race and one that the winner should build on for the future, even if it’s a future that doesn’t include lilies.

Kinza is from the fifth crop of the Giant’s Causeway horse Carpe Diem, now standing in Louisiana after relocating from WinStar Farm in late 2021. Winner of the 2014 Lanes’ End Breeders’ Futurity (USA-G1) and 2015 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (USA-G1), his progeny have shown a little more stamina than the average American runner, suggesting that another furlong or so should be within Kinza’s scope as she continues to mature. Although Carpe Diem himself did not run on the turf, Giant’s Causeway was a turf star himself and sired many good turf runners, suggesting a possible home for Kinza on that surface as well.

On the distaff side, Kinza’s female family is more suggestive of speed, though the presence of Quality Road as broodmare sire does bring additional stamina to the table. Kinza is the second foal and first foal to race from the winning Quality Road mare Secret Wonder, whose stakes-placed dam Maxinkuckee Miss is by 1996 Vosburgh Stakes (USA-G1) and 1997 Metropolitan Handicap (USA-G1) winner Langfuhr. The Canadian champion sprinter of 1996, Langfuhr was sired by Danzig and was one of three stakes winners produced from the stakes-winning Briartic mare Sweet Briar Too.

Returning to Maxinkuckee Miss, she is a half sister to Winikins (by Cozzene), dam of multiple Grade 3 winner Gentle Ruler, a filly who defied the family history and took after her sire Colonel John in being a good stayer. On the other hand, Maxinkuckee Miss is also a half sister to stakes-placed Winiliscious (by Lawyer Ron), whose stakes-winning foals Lil Miss Moppet (by Uncle Mo) and My Beautiful Belle (by Munnings) were both sprinters. For what it is worth, Kinza herself had enough lick to blitz through a furlong in :10-1/5 seconds at the 2023 Fasig-Tipton Mid-Atlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training, so she is certainly not devoid of speed.

As owner Petersen has elected to keep Kinza with Baffert in spite of the Churchill Downs ban, there will be no trips to Kentucky in the filly’s future, at least not within the foreseeable future. This may actually be something of a blessing in disguise, as there is unlikely to be any pressure to have Kinza make a particular race during the spring. With a choice of targets out there, the filly can be allowed to develop at her own pace—and so far, that pace was been a pretty good one. An outing against good competition at 8.5 or 9 furlongs should tell us more about where Kinza’s future lies: in the female sprinter ranks, or pursuing some of her division’s traditional prizes around two turns.
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Mares on Monday: Florida Breeding Gets a Day in the Sun in Forward Gal

2/5/2024

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The Forward Gal Stakes (USA-G3) is the first graded stakes on Florida’s road to the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1), but for winner R Harper Rose, it will probably be the last step on that path—not because the filly lacks quality, but because sprinting appears to be her game. The winner of the seven-furlong Susan’s Girl Stakes from last year’s Florida Sire Stakes series for 2-year-olds, R Harper Rose cut back to her favorite trip after falling short in the 8.5 furlong My Dear Girl Stakes in her final race at 2 and had no difficulty making her 2024 debut a winning one, scoring by two lengths over Fiona’s Magic.

Bred in Florida by Sally Andersen, R Harper Rose is a daughter of four-time Florida champion sire Khozan, a Distorted Humor half brother to three-time American champion filly Royal Delta. The winner of both his starts by a total of 16½ lengths before suffering a career-ending injury, Khozan has 15 other stakes winners to his credit including graded winners Background, Foggy Night, and Hot Peppers.

R Harper Rose is the first stakes winner and fourth winner produced from True Bliss, whose sire, Yes It’s True, won the 1999 Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Stakes (USA-G1) and seven other graded sprint stakes before becoming a good speed sire. A half sister to 2012 The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial Stakes (USA-G3) winner Hierro (by Hard Spun) and listed stakes winner Cherokee Triangle (by Cherokee Run), True Bliss is out of 2001 Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (USA-G3) runner-up Brief Bliss. The next dam in R Harper Rose’s tail-female line, Annul, is a winner by 1982 American Horse of the Year Conquistador Cielo out of Lyphard’s winning daughter Bygones, a half sister to 1986 Chevington Stud Rockfel Stakes (ENG-G3) winner Al Risk (by Mr. Prospector). This is a decidedly speed-leaning family and probably a major contributor to making R Harper Rose a promising sprinter rather than a two-turn candidate.

Although R Harper Rose is unlikely to go further along the Lily Lane, runner-up Fiona’s Magic may get another chance after earning 10 Oaks points for her runner-up performance. A Florida-bred daughter of St. Patrick’s Day (a Group 3-placed full brother to 2015 American Triple Crown winner American Pharoah), she tired after carving out an opening half-mile in :45.90 but still hung on well for second, and this after being a bit slow at the break. A half sister to juvenile stakes winner Cajun’s Magic (by Cajun Breeze), she is out of Mollie’s Magic, whose sire, the Storm Cat horse Factum, is a winning half brother to War Front. Mllie’s Magic herself is an unraced half sister to stakes winners Two T’s at Two Bs (by Untuttable), Scandalous Act (by Act of Duty), and Boo Boo Kitty (by Poseidon’s Warrior).

Chi Chi filled out a Florida-bred trifecta in the Forward Gal, earning six points toward an Oaks starting berth, and may have the best pedigree of all for stretching out to the 9 furlongs of the “Lilies for the Fillies.” A daughter of 2018 Florida Derby (USA-G1) winner Audible, she is a half sister to 2022 Fountain of Youth Stakes (USA-G2) winner Simplification, who ran a creditable fourth in that year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (USA-G1), and is from the family of 2004 Oaks winner and American champion 3-year-old filly Ashado, who went on to repeat as an Eclipse winner as a 4-year-old. For both her and Fiona’s Magic, the March 2 Davona Dale Stakes (USA-G2), which offers 50 points toward the Oaks to the winner, may be the logical next step along this year’s Lily Lane.
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    I'm Avalyn Hunter, an author, pedigree researcher and longtime racing fan with a particular interest in Thoroughbred mares and their contributions to the history of the breed.

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