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2017 Triple Crown Trail: An Unexpected Song

4/29/2017

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With the defections of Battalion Runner and Malagacy from the potential field for the Kentucky Derby--Presented by Yum! Brands (USA-G1), Sonneteer is now in the 20th slot and apparently will contest the race. Hope apparently does spring eternal, even though this colt has raced 10 times and has yet to find the finish line first.

The Derby has seen its share of maidens with far more in the way of high-flown hopes than credentials behind them, but only two have actually jumped from maidens to Classic winners in one step. The first was Sir Barton, who was entered as a pacemaker for his stablemate Billy Kelly. The entry ran one-two, only not in the order expected, and it is one of the ironies of racing history that as the season progressed, Billy Kelly ended up serving as a work horse for his vastly improved stablemate, now retroactively recognized as the first American Triple Crown winner. (An extremely talented horse as well as a hickory-tough one, Billy Kelly won seven stakes races in 1919 in addition to helping keep Sir Barton in shape, a task that burned out several of their stablemates.)

The other Derby winner to have entered the starting gate as a maiden was Brokers Tip, the last of Colonel Edward Riley Bradley's four Derby winners. A beautifully bred horse, he was also a thoroughly unsound one, and the Derby was his only flash of what might have been had he been gifted with better-constructed legs. He broke down in his next start, made an unsuccessful comeback attempt at 5 and retired with the Derby as his only victory in 14 starts.

Like both Sir Barton (second in the Futurity Stakes at 2) and Brokers Tip (third in the Cincinnati Trophy as a juvenile), Sonneteer has flashed some ability, running a respectable second behind Malagacy in the Rebel Stakes (USA-G2), and his fourth in the Arkansas Derby (USA-G1) was not a bad race either. Nonetheless, on the form he has shown thus far, he is a fair cut below the best of his age.

His pedigree also raises questions, not because of its quality but because of possible distance limitations. While two-time Breeders' Cup Sprint (USA-G1) winner Midnight Lute was trained for sprints primarily because of an acquired breathing problem, he seems to be more a sire of intermediate distance horses than classic types. The dam, Ours, is by the speedy Unbridled's Song horse Half Ours, whose biggest win was at 7 furlongs, and is a half sister to Dublin, who won the Hopeful Stakes (USA-G1) at 2 but did not train on as well as could have been hoped at 3 in spite of being sired by Afleet Alex. The next dam, Classy Mirage, also had distance limitations, having taken her biggest win in the 7-furlong Ballerina Handicap (USA-G1). The family is an excellent one that has included some first-rate horses that could stay classic distances, notably Dark Mirage, Java Gold and Indian Skimmer, but it has generally required crossing to sires that could contribute stamina to get horses capable of going 10 furlongs or more in top company.

The Derby has seen some very strange things happen, and Sonneteer could become the third maiden to take the historic race. If he does, he will conclude a topsy-turvy spring season on perhaps a fitting note, if not an expected one.
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Weekend Trivia Challenge for 4/29/2017

4/29/2017

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Jockey Jean Cruguet rode Seattle Slew to the Triple Crown, but in looking back over his career, he named another horse as being even better, stating that this colt would have been a 1-9 shot to win the Triple Crown had he remained sound. Instead, a broken leg sent this ultra-talented youngster off to surgery and then to stud, leaving an entirely unexpected new star to write the headlines that spring. Who was Cruguet's choice as a horse who might have been one of the greatest of the great?
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Weekend Trivia Challenge for 4/21/2017

4/21/2017

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Named for a town in New York, this Kentucky Derby winner was the first winner of America's most coveted Classic to be exported to Japan. Name him.
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2017 Triple Crown Trail: A Throne Regained

4/16/2017

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After a series of crazy Triple Crown preps, Classic Empire closed the door on the spring season with something that has been rare so far this year: a favorite delivering on his previous form. He did it with style, too, coming very wide on the final turn and still having enough punch to roar through his final furlong in the neighborhood of :12.1.

After a championship juvenile season, no one doubted that Classic Empire had genuine talent. The questions surrounding him centered on the physical issues that plagued him this spring, as well as the quirky colt's mental readiness. On the latter score, Classic Empire will still have to face the barely-controlled chaos that is Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, but the well-schooled colt who entered the starting gate for the Arkansas Derby (USA-I) was a far cry from the one who was refusing all efforts to get him to work a few weeks ago. After some initial restiveness in the starting gate, he stood quietly, broke beautifully, and handled being shuffled back a bit in the early going without turning a hair.

Physically, Classic Empire undoubtedly needed this race---a fact that should frighten his competitors, as this was definitely one of the better races of the prep season, with an honest pace and rivals up front who weren't dying on the lead. He should now be razor-sharp and ready to go at Churchill Downs, and there is no apparent reason why he should not be able to give a good account of himself as he attempts to defend his crown as the best of his generation.

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Weekend Trivia Challenge for 4/14/2017

4/14/2017

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It's not too uncommon for a colt to seal the championship of the 3-year-old male division by his feats during the Triple Crown series. Virtually locking down the championship even before the Kentucky Derby, on the other hand, is all but unheard of, but then, so is a 3-year-old defeating his elders in a major race so early in the year. Ironically, the hero of this week's question accomplished these feats after remaining a maiden in eight starts during his 2-year-old season. Who is he?
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Along the Lily Lane: Paradise Regained

4/10/2017

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After Beholder retired, Richard Mandella must have thought he would never see her like again, especially in his own barn.

Enter Paradise Woods.

Granted, Paradise Woods will have to go a long way to match up with Beholder, whose record of sustained excellence over five seasons is one for the ages. Nonetheless, the talent is there, wrapped up in a dainty bay ballerina who danced her way to a record-breaking Santa Anita Oaks (USA-G1) win without drawing a deep breath. The one regret over her race is the absence of Unique Bella, whose own devastating talent is now on the shelf; a race showcasing these two fillies would be one to watch indeed.

The one thing that Beholder was never able to do was to win outside California, but that is likely to be Paradise Woods' next challenge as she is now tentatively slated for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) and a collision with pro tem divisional leader Farrell as well as last-out winners Miss Sky Warrior (Gazelle Stakes, USA-G2), Salty (Gulfstream Park Oaks, USA-G2) and Sailor's Valentine (Ashland Stakes, USA-G1). Because Paradise Woods is so lightly raced (the Santa Anita Oaks was only her third lifetime start), it is impossible to guess whether she will progress or regress from this race. If the former, Mandella won't need to read Paradise Regained---he will already have found his way back.
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2017 Triple Crown Trail: Another Day in Topsy-Turvy Land

4/10/2017

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Could this year's Kentucky Derby picture get any more confusing? After this last weekend's Derby preps, it looks as if it will take a small miracle for the Derby favorite to go off at less than 4-1, and for good reason. A horse that was a maiden before Saturday is now assured a Derby starting spot if the connections want it, previously unbeaten McCraken went down with a thud, and Gormley mostly proved that it's anyone's ballgame among the California set in the absence of Mastery, though in fairness, he did at least show that he can settle off the lead and thereby closed one chink in his armor. The one horse whose stock clearly went up without reservation is Irish War Cry, who bounced back from a puzzling clunker in the Fountain of Youth (USA-G2) to prove he doesn't have to have everything his way; his performance in the Wood Memorial (USA-G2) was arguably the best of the weekend among the sophomore males.

McCraken was probably the disappointment of the week, but as he did not get an ideal trip and probably needed the race to boot, his prep in the Toyota Blue Grass (USA-G2) may have done more to enhance his Derby chances than a bare reading of the results might suggest. As for the winner, Irap, he is probably a better horse than his odds and his status as a maiden suggested, considering that he had run second in three stakes including the 2016 Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (USA-G1). Nonetheless, he was 31-1 in the Blue Grass for a reason, namely his unimpressive fourth place in his last outing, the Sunland Derby (USA-G3). His race in the Blue Grass was solid enough but nothing likely to start a new fan club, and he is not likely to start at anything less than 15-1 in the Derby (and that may be generous) unless he works like a monster between now and the first Saturday in May.

If pedigree means anything, though, Irap does have the potential for serious improvement as he continues maturing. His sire Tiznow took until the second half of his 3-year-old season to come into his own, and his half brother Speightstown waited until age 6 to post the form that made him an American champion sprinter. He will have to do some of that improving very quickly indeed, however, if Paul Reddam is going to hoist the Derby trophy.

Derby pundits will now have to await the outcome of next weekend's Arkansas Derby (USA-G1) to even get the final pieces of this year's Derby puzzle onto the table, much less assemble them to come up with a picture that might possibly be of some use. If Classic Empire runs to his juvenile form, or if unbeaten Malagacy continues building off the level he reached in the Rebel Stakes (USA-G2), fans and turf writers alike may be saluting the newest crown prince. On the other hand, if the Arkansas Derby comes up with yet another surprise winner, it will probably be a fitting conclusion to one of the most chaotic Derby prep seasons in recent memory.
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Along the Lily Lane: Adding Some Salt to the Mix

4/3/2017

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While the defection of Unique Bella from the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) picture due to a shin injury removed the likely favorite for the race, her absence does not appear to throw the Oaks nearly as wide open as last year. When Songbird was declared out in 2016, there were several fillies who stood out as possible contenders in her absence. This, year, there is Farrell, who recorded her third straight stakes success in the Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (USA-G2) last Saturday, and there is everyone else.

Farrell is almost certain to be a hot favorite to continue the recent tradition of the Fair Grounds Oaks in producing Kentucky Oaks winners. Six wearers of the lilies have come out of the Fair Grounds Oaks in the last 13 years, including champions Ashado, Proud Spell, Rachel Alexandra and Untapable. Nonetheless, Farrell can't be everywhere, and that has left an opportunity for other fillies to prove that they might be Oaks material. Among them is Salty, who went from maiden winner to impressive Grade 2 winner in the fraction of a second it took jockey Joel Rosario to make a crucial decision to launch an early bid in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (USA-G2).

Salty was the "buzz horse" coming into the race, so much so that she secured even-money favoritism over Forward Gal Stakes (USA-G2) winner Tequilita, a filly riding a three-race win streak. Left behind in the early going, the filly started picking up horses on her own after a quarter-mile. When Rosario made the decision to ask her with nearly three-quarters of a mile run, she responded, sweeping to the lead and widening from there in spite of running somewhat greenly down the lane. The late-running Tequilita made a good move of her own in the stretch but proved unable to close the gap as Salty strode out through the wire.

Salty is a daughter of Quality Road, a four-time Grade 1 winner at distances up to 9 furlongs, and her dam, stakes-placed Theycallmeladyluck, is by 2000 Haskell Invitational Handicap (USA-G1) winner Dixie Union, so there seems to be little reason to think that Salty can't tack on another sixteenth of a mile in the Kentucky Oaks. A more pertinent question is whether the lightly raced filly, who was making only her third lifetime start, will regress off her effort or move forward. If she does the latter---and if she can gain better position in the early running---Farrell may need a little salt in her own shaker to stand off the new girl on the block.
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2017 Triple Crown Trail: Dreaming Big

4/3/2017

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By this time, anyone paying the slightest attention to the 3-year-old racing scene in North America knows that Always Dreaming turned in the fastest Florida Derby (USA-G1) in 39 years. The Bodemeister colt did it with the brilliance that characterized his sire, too, showing the ability to carry a high cruising speed over a route---and it took a very good colt in I'll Have Another to run Bodemeister down in the 2012 Kentucky Derby (USA-G2) and Preakness Stakes (USA-G1I).

The distaff side of Always Dreaming's pedigree does not exactly shout 10 furlongs, but then neither did the pedigree of his broodmare sire In Excess, who scorched the legs out from under four Grade 1 fields at distances from 8 to 10 furlongs in 1991. Fast horses tend to make their own racing luck, and a horse with the ability to click off nearly even fractions throughout a route race is extremely dangerous whether skimming along on an uncontested lead or stalking.

The down side to Always Dreaming, as with many others in this year's possible Kentucky Derby field, is his lack of racing experience. No one knows how he will respond if racing circumstances take him out of his preferred running style, and no one knows whether he is rising up to a peak at the right time or whether he will regress from Saturday's effort at precisely the wrong time. So far, the only potential North American-based Derby horses to have demonstrated that they can fire consistently are Gunnevera, who ran his usual solid race behind Always Dreaming to be third off a six-wide final turn, and Girvin, who added the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (USA-G2) to his earlier score in the Risen Star Stakes (USA-G2)---and Girvin's rather erratic course in the stretch was not as solid as one might like to see for a final Derby prep. The other possible horse who has shown he can put good races back to back is Thunder Snow, whose successes have come in Dubai.

Next week's 9-furlong preps should sort out most of the pretenders from the contenders, and many horsemen look to McCraken to re-establish himself at the top of the Derby pileup. Nonetheless, for this week at least, the crown belongs to Always Dreaming. We'll see if he can keep it when it counts.



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Weekend trivia challenge for 4/2/17

4/2/2017

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Perhaps the best American producer never to garner Broodmare of the Year honors, this mighty matron threw nine stakes winners including a champion. She was also the dam of an American champion sire and a Kentucky Broodmare of the Year and numbers at least eight champions or highweights among her descendants. Who was she?
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    I'm Avalyn Hunter, an author, pedigree researcher and longtime racing fan with a particular interest in Thoroughbred mares and their contributions to the history of the breed.

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