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Mares on Monday: The Numbers Game

4/28/2025

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​Trick question: Who was the last Kentucky Oaks winner to produce a Kentucky Oaks winner?

Answer: It hasn’t happened yet. And the record in the Kentucky Derby isn’t much better; only Princess Turia, the 1956 Oaks champion, has a Kentucky Derby winner to her credit, and that was by disqualification when Forward Pass was moved up after apparent winner Dancer’s Image tested positive for Bute, then illegal under Kentucky racing regulations.

The next trick question is a bit subtler than the first. In 150 years, why haven’t Kentucky Oaks winners had much luck in reproducing themselves in America’s biggest races?

The likeliest answer is simple math. Unlike a Kentucky Derby-winning stallion, who may be represented by over 200 foals in a single year, a Kentucky Oaks winner can have only one. Given that no more than 10 Oaks winners are likely to have 3-year-old foals in a given year—and in most years, it has been less than that—the odds are heavily stacked against them even compared to their Kentucky Derby-winning brethren, who in any given year will have hundreds of foals of the requisite age between them. For 2022, the year in which this year’s Derby and Oaks contenders were born, 17,146 Thoroughbred foals have been registered in the United States. Even if only foals out of stakes-winning or stakes-producing mares are considered, the Oaks winners’ progeny are outnumbered by hundreds if not thousands to one by other foals which at least have some chance of having inherited the genetic wherewithal to be top-level winners.

At this time, eight Kentucky Oaks winners have current 3-year-olds. While a review of these offspring proves nothing in itself, it does serve as a snapshot of the odds against even a well-bred, high-performing mare with excellent breeding opportunities to produce a runner showing high enough class in the spring of its 3-year-old season to make the starting gate on Churchill Downs’ biggest days.

2004 Kentucky Oaks winner Ashado’s 2022 foal is Bernardo, a Bernardini gelding who has placed third twice from 10 starts. He is a full brother to 2018 Runhappy Stakes (USA-L) winner Westwood, Ashado’s only black-type winner from 12 other named foals.

Lemons Forever (2006 Oaks) has an unraced 2022 filly by Speightstown, Forever Speighty. The only Kentucky Oaks winner to be named the Kentucky Broodmare of the Year, Lemons Forever is the dam of 2017 American champion dirt female Forever Unbridled (by Unbridled’s Song) and her Grade 1-winning full sister, Unbridled Forver, who took her top-level win in the 2015 Ballerina Stakes.

Proud Spell (2007 Oaks) was exported to Japan, where her 2022 filly by Duramente, Proud Moment, was foaled; this filly has started once without placing. Proud Spell’s first foal, indian Spell (by Indian Charlie), is her only stakes winner, having captured the 2013 Miss Woodford Stakes at Monmouth.

Plum Pretty (2011 Oaks) is the dam of the 2022 Speightstown filly Pretty Speightful, who has not raced. Plum Pretty has produced only one winner during her broodmare career.

Believe You Can (2012 Oaks) is the dam of Bells of Maranello, a Nyquist filly who is unraced, Believe You Can has previously produced multiple Grade 2 winner Conclude (by Collected) and Grade 3-placed stakes winner Believe in Royalty (by Tapit) from five previous named foals.

Lovely Maria (2015 Oaks) was exported to Japan. Her 2022 foal, the Lord Kanaloa filly Heart Meteor, has raced once without placing. Neither of Lovely Maria’s two previous foals were winners.

Abel Tasman (2017 Oaks) has a 2022 filly by Into Mischief named Take a Look. She is unplaced in two starts, and Abel Tasman has yet to have a winner from three foals of racing age.

Serengeti Empress (2019 Oaks) produced the Into Mischief colt Invictus as her first foal in 2022. He has won one of his two starts.

Rags to Riches (2006 Oaks), Blind Luck (2010 Oaks), Untapable (2014 Oaks), and Cathryn Sophia (2016 Oaks) had no live foal in 2022 although they were still active producers at that time. None of the Oaks winners from 2020-2024 began producing foals until after 2022.

Among this year’s Oaks and Derby contenders, the one with the closest connection to an Oaks winner is Bourbonette Oaks (USA-L) winner Bless the Broken, whose dam is a half sister to 2013 winner Princess of Sylmar. She’s currently listed at 30-1. Take that for what it’s worth, and perhaps next year the stars will come together to bring the son or daughter of an Oaks winner into the spotlight on one of racing’s biggest days.
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Mares on Monday: Remembering Winning Colors

4/21/2025

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With the 2025 Kentucky Derby fast approaching, this seems an appropriate time to review the last filly to win the great race. Winning Colors lived up to her name in 1988, flying the colors of Eugene Klein to a neck victory over Forty Niner. She failed to live up to hopes as a broodmare, but on April 19, her granddaughter Princess Aliyah became a stakes winner and continued the growth of her legacy through her daughters.

Bred in Kentucky by Echo Valley Horse Farm, Winning Colors was sired by 1971 French champion older male Caro, a big, strong horse whose other North American progeny included 1989 Canadian Triple Crown winner and Horse of the Year With Approval and Siberian Express. The last-named horse crossed the Atlantic back to his sire’s native land and won the classic Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French Two Thousand Guineas, FR-G1) in 1984, a race that Caro had won in 1970 on the disqualification of Faraway Son. Caro’s male line persists today through the sons and grandsons of Siberian Express’s grandson Indian Charlie, whose son Uncle Mo was the American champion juvenile male of 2011. Uncle Mo, in turn, sired the line’s current banner-bearer, Nyquist, who was the American champion juvenile male of 2015 and won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

Caro bequeathed his rugged make and a fair measure of the rather infamous disposition of Grey Sovereign (his grandsire and a son of the tempestuous Nasrullah) to Winning Colors, a US$675,000 yearling purchase by trainer D. Wayne Lukas on behalf of Eugene Klein. Her price reflected her size and excellent conformation as well as an excellent female family. Produced from the stakes winner All Rainbows (by Bold Hour), she is a “niece” to 1974 American champion 3-year-old filly Chris Evert (by Swoon’s Son), whose branch of the family includes 1984 American champion 2-year-old male and good sire Chief’s Crown and Grade/Group 1 winners Classic Crown, Dominican, Etoile Montante, Giulia, Lambent Light, Pasqualetti, Sightseek, Special Duty, and Tates Creek. Miss Carmie (by T. V. Lark), the dam of All Rainbows and Chris Evert, was a stakes winner in her own right and had several other stakes-producing daughters.

After winning at first asking in a seven-furlong maiden race at Saratoga, Winning Colors did not run again until the winter/spring Santa Anita meeting. She picked up wins in a six-furlong allowance race and the 1988 La Centinela Stakes before running into a tough customer in Goodbye Halo, who handed her a surprise loss by a neck in the one-mile Las Virgenes Stakes (G1). The Caro filly avenged herself in their next meeting, the Santa Anita Oaks (USA-G1), which Winning Colors took by eight lengths from Jeanne Jones with Goodbye Halo third.

With the Southern California sophomore colts appearing to lack any clear standouts, Lukas had no qualms about wheeling his big filly back in the Santa Anita Derby (USA-G1) four weeks later. She won laughing by 7¼ lengths in her usual front-running style over Lively One, who would win the Swaps Stakes, USA-G1, at the Hollywood meeting later in the year. That race punched her ticket to the Kentucky Derby. She trained splendidly up to the race and entered the starting gate as second choice in the betting behind Private Terms, who held favoritism by a razor-thin margin.

The story of the race is simply told. Gary Stevens put Winning Colors on the lead from the start and no one went with her, letting the filly coast through fractions of :46-4/5 for the first half-mile, 1:11-2/5 for the three-quarters, and 1:36 for the mile. It took her 26-1/5 seconds the run the last quarter-mile, but that was just enough to hold Forty Niner’s furious closing run by a neck.

Winning Colors followed 1980 Kentucky Derby winner Genuine Risk through the Triple Crown races, becoming the second filly to compete in all three, but a suicidal speed duel with Forty Niner in the Preakness Stakes (USA-G1) cost both any chance of winning the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. Winning Colors ended up a leg-weary third behind Risen Star, who had been third in the Derby after a rough trip; Forty Niner finished seventh and was not seen again until the Monmouth summer meeting, when he won an epic duel against Seeking the Gold in the Haskell Invitational Handicap (USA-G1). The two turned in an encore performance in the Travers Stakes (USA-G1) at Saratoga, with Forty Niner again winning by a nose, and Forty Niner was later a strong second to eventual Horse of the Year Alysheba in the Woodward Handicap (USA-G1) and won the NYRA Mile Handicap to finish his year.

Winning Colors probably should have skipped the Belmont Stakes (USA-G1) as well; a shadow of what she had been in the Derby, she led for the first mile but was easily overhauled by eventual American champion 3-year-old male Risen Star, who won the “Test of the Champion” by 14¾ lengths with the filly sixth and last. The remainder of her year is remembered for two tremendous races against unbeaten Personal Ensign, the year’s American champion older female. In the one-mile Maskette Stakes (USA-G1), Winning Colors ran a game race on the front end before going down to her 4-year-old rival by three-quarters of a length. In the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (USA-G1), Winning Colors was back to her very best form and caught a wet Churchill Downs track that she relished and Personal Ensign did not. Winning Colors ran what would have been a winning race against any other rival, and that Personal Ensign managed to catch her in the final stride to win by a nose marked her as a champion for the ages. Scrappy Goodbye Halo, whose four Grade 1 wins during the year included both the Kentucky Oaks and the Coaching Club American Oaks, was another half-length back in third, rounding out the top three in one of the best Breeders’ Cup races ever.

At four, Winning Colors failed to recover her best form and retired to the paddocks at the end of the season with eight wins and US$1,526,837 in earnings to her credit from 19 starts. She produced 10 named foals, all by top Kentucky stallions, but none were remotely close to what she had been as a racer. To say that her results were disappointing was an understatement, especially considering the record of her much less accomplished half sister All Dance (by Northern Dancer), who produced 2003 Japan Cup (JPN-G1) winner Tap Dance City (by Pleasant Tap) and two other stakes winners. Another half sister, Forever Rainbows (by Deputy Minister), is the second dam of 2018 Gran Premio General San Martín (ARG-G1) winner Tiger Feet.

Fortunately for Winning Colors’ legacy, four of her daughters have become stakes producers. The first, Shbakni (by Mr. Prospector), produced 2014 Swiss champion steeplechaser Shaabek (by Byron) and is the second dam of three stakes winners including 2010 Czech champion sprinter and 2011 Slovakian champion sprinter Line Honey. She is also the third dam of Indian Horse of the Year Adjudicate. She was followed by Golden Colors (by Mr, Prospector), dam of Japanese Group 3 winner Cheerful Smile (by Sunday Silence), and Stormin Winnie (by Storm Cat), dam of French listed stakes winner La Conseillante (by Elusive Quality).

Winning Colors saved the best for last with Silver Colors, a daughter of the good Mr. Prospector grandson Mr. Greeley. This mare is the dam of 2018 Alabama Stakes (USA-G1) winner Eskimo Kisses (by To Honor and Serve) and is also the dam of 3-year-old Princess Aliyah (by Into Mischief), now the winner of the Valley of the Vapors Stakes at Oaklawn Park. She is trained by none other than D. Wayne Lukas, and though she won’t be going in either the Kentucky Oaks or the Kentucky Derby, she brings the story full circle, back to a fire-eating filly who showed the boys her heels in America’s most storied race 37 years ago.



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Mares on Monday: Naturally Good in Brazilian Classics

4/14/2025

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​With the starting lineup for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) fairly well settled, this seems a good time to turn attention back to South America. April 6 saw a very good card at Rio de Janeiro’s Gávea track, topped by the Grande Prêmio Zelia Gonzaga Peixoto de Castro (BRZ-G1), third leg of Rio’s Filly Triple Crown, and the Grande Prêmio Cruzeiro do Sul (BRZ-G1), also known as the Brazilian Derby.

The Grande Prêmio Zelia Gonzaga Peixoto de Castro drew only four entries, and the presence of Naturalizada is the presumed reason. A solid third in the Grande Prêmio Diana (Brazilian Oaks, BRZ-G1) on March 9, she took full advantage of the absence of Diana winner Ethereum and runner-up Night of Rose (previously the winner of two legs of São Paulo’s Filly Triple Crown). She also took advantage of the 2400-meter distance, which she clearly relished. Keeping company with her three overmatched rivals through the first 2000 meters, she said “Adeus” at that point and kicked on for home. That was the last the others saw of her as she rolled to victory by 16¼ lengths. Her time of 2:34.65 was 3.05 seconds faster than the time for the next race on the card, a Group 2 stakes for all horses ages 3 and up that was won by multiple Group 1 winner Underpants, last year’s Grande Prêmio Cruzeiro do Sul winner. It was also 1.73 seconds faster than the time Nudini posted in winning the Grande Prêmio Cruzeiro do Sul three races after that.

In fairness to the boys, it did start raining at Gávea after the fillies’ race, though how much of a difference that made is beyond my ability to answer. As shown by the race replay, Naturalizada and company were already kicking up some pretty fair divots, so the course seems to have already had some cut in it at the start of the day. In any event, it was a visually impressive performance by a filly who was making only her fifth lifetime start.

A full sister to Lah Lah Lah, who won the Grande Prêmio Zelia Gonzaga Peixoto de Castro in 2022, Naturalizada is a daughter of 2012 Forego Stakes (USA-G1) winner Emcee. Sold to Brazilian breeder Haras Santa Maria de Araras (the breeder of Naturalizada and Lah Lah Lah) in 2018, the son of Unbridled’s Song is also the sire of Underpants and two Group 3 winners of 2025 and is currently ninth on the Brazilian general sire list

Haras Santa Maria de Araras has breeding operations in both Brazil and Argentina, and Naturalizada’s dam Macchiatta was bred by their Argentine facility. Sired by the A.P. Indy horse Jump Start, she never raced. She was produced from the Royal Academy mare Ma Cherie, a product of Brazil-based Stud TNT and a half sister to Stick Around (by Roi Normand), dam of 2017/18 Brazilian champion 2-year-old filly Bay Ovar (by Drosselmeyer) and 2019 Grande Prêmio Julio Capua (BRZ-G2) winner Bavaro Beach (by Agnes Gold) as well as listed stakes winner Fronteira Around (by Drosselmeyer). Produced from Lady de Paris (by the stakes-winning Nureyev horse Nugget Point), Ma Cherie is also a half sister to Toujour Paris (by Our Emblem), dam of Gran Premio de Honor (URU-G2) winner Cerro Largo (by Drosselmeyer). This female line has been in South America since the early 20th century and traces to the Persimmon mare Reine Claude, whose full sister Lisma is the dam of 1917 Kentucky Derby winner and co-champion American 3-year-old male Omar Khayyam (by Marco).

Drosselmeyer, whose racing career was highlighted by wins in the 2010 Belmont Stakes (USA-G1) and 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic (USA-G1), has been doing well as a sire in Brazil, including two-runner up finishes among his six appearances in the top 10 on the nation’s general sire list. He currently holds a narrow lead in the Brazilian sire standings thanks to Nudini, who is yet another representative of the Brazilian branch of Lady Be Good’s family via her great-granddaughter Ex Facto. This clan has been reviewed recently in greater detail (“Mares on Monday: Lady Be Good Just Gets Better in Brazil,” March 17, 2025), but suffice it to say that in Brazil, as elsewhere in the world, deep female families keep proving their worth again and again.
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Mares on Monday: The Last Mile on the Lily Lane

4/7/2025

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​Time has run out for 3-year-old fillies to accumulate the points needed to make the starting gate for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1). As of last weekend, only three such opportunities still remained: the Santa Anita Oaks (USA-G2) on April 5; the Gazelle Stakes (USA-G2), also on April 5; and the Ashland Stakes (USA-G1), now to be run on April 6 due to weather conditions forcing cancellation of Keeneland racing over the weekend. (Quick update: La Cara won, with Take Charge Milady second and Muhimma third; all three have earned Oaks bids, with Muhimma getting the tiebreaker over other fillies with 50 points by earnings.)

In Southern California, Tenwa was expected to dominate a short field in the Santa Anita Oaks and she duly won, though not with the brilliance expected. Nonetheless, she had long since guaranteed herself a Kentucky Oaks berth and, barring injury or illness, will be among the favorites at Louisville. Ballerina d’Oro was in a different position. With only 20 points on her record, she needed to finish first or second in the Gazelle to move forward to Churchill Downs. She got the job done, gutting out a nose victory over Early On. That rival also assured herself of an Oaks starting spot with the 50 points she got for her second-place finish, giving her a total of 75 points; Ballerina d’Oro picked up 100, vaulting her to fifth on the Oaks leaderboard with 120 points.

Bred by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, Ballerina d’Oro is a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, already the sire of two Oaks winners in Rachel Alexandra and Plum Pretty and also the sire of leading 2025 Oaks candidate Good Cheer. She is the second foal of the Tapit mare In the Moonlight, whose first foal, the City of Light gelding Blue Light, is a solid performer at the allowance/optional claimer level. In the Moonlight produced a 2023 Gun Runner colt who has yet to race or be named and this year gave birth to a filly by Taiba.

Although In the Moonlight failed to gain a placing in five starts, she has excellent connections. Produced from the Carson City mare Moonlight Sonata, she is a half sister to 2008 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (USA-G2) winner Beethoven (by Sky Mesa), 2011 Indiana Derby (USA-G2) winner Wilburn (by Bernardini), and Grade 3-placed listed stakes winner La Appassionata (by Bernardini). In the Moonlight is also a half sister to Venetian Sonata (by Bernardini), dam of 2021 Las Virgenes Stakes (USA-G1) winner Moonlight d’Oro (by Medaglia d’Oro), and to A. P. Sonata (by A.P. Indy), dam of 2024 FanDuel TV Kentucky Cup Turf Stakes (USA-G2) winner Grand Sonata (by Medaglia d’Oro).

Moonlight Sonata was herself a good race mare, winning the 2002 Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (USA-G3) and placing in three other stakes races. A half sister to 1999 Futurity Stakes (USA-G1) winner Bevo (by Prospectors Gamble), she is also a half sister to Vargas Girl (by Deputy Minister), dam of 2017 Kentucky Oaks winner and American champion 3-year-old filly Abel Tasman (by Quality Road) and of 2013 Dogwood Stakes (USA-G3) winner Sky Girl (by Sky Mesa).

Based on her bloodlines as well as past performance, Ballerina d’Oro should have no trouble with the Kentucky Oaks trip of 9 furlongs, and neither should Early On, a “cousin” of Gulfstream Park Oaks (USA-G2) winner Five G and fellow Kentucky Oaks qualifier Five G (“Mares on Monday: Five G Becomes Latest Contender for the Kentucky Oaks,” March 31, 2025). A daughter of 2012 Belmont Stakes (USA-G1) winner Union Rags, Early On is out of the Distorted Humor mare Sally O’Brien, whose half sister Triumphant (by Quality Road) is the dam of Five G. As discussed in connection with Five G’s pedigree, both fillies are from the family of another Belmont Stakes winner in Bet Twice, a half brother to their fourth dam, 1992 Santa Anita Oaks (USA-G1) winner Golden Treat.

La Cara, the latest entry to the Kentucky Oaks field as of two hours ago, should also have no trouble with the distance as a daughter of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense from the fine old Darby Dan family of Golden Trail. The same can be said for Take Charge Milady, who is by 2012 Florida Derby (USA-G1) winner Take Charge Indy out of a daughter of 2007 Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy, so at this point, a large field with plenty of legitimate contenders appears set for the “Lilies for the Fillies” on May 2. May the best and fleetest win.


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    Author

    I'm Avalyn Hunter, an author, pedigree researcher and longtime racing fan with a particular interest in Thoroughbred mares and their contributions to the history of the breed.

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