Mares on Monday - American Classic Pedigrees

2018 Triple Crown Trail: Loud and Clear from Florida and Dubai

3/31/2018

Aside from the exciting duel between Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie in the San Felipe Stakes (USA-G2) (which, alas, has been followed by McKinzie's defection from an expected rematch in the Santa Anita Derby, USA-G1, due to a possible hind leg injury), this season's Triple Crown trail has so far been more ho-hum than inspiring. Within the next two weeks, however, the major traditional Triple Crown preps will be on the line across the country, and the picture should come more sharply into focus. Those trainers with lightly raced but high-potential prospects have no choice but to show their cards now if their colts are to have the points needed to make the starting gate at Churchill Downs; the stars (such as they were) of the early season will have to reveal themselves as contenders or pretenders.

That should provide some excitement, provided any is needed after today's United Arab Emirates Derby (UAE-G2) and Florida Derby (USA-G1). In the first, Mendelssohn---last seen winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (USA-G1)---absolutely humiliated the other Dubai-based 3-year-olds with any pretensions to some ability while making it clear that he can handle dirt just fine, thank you. In the second, Audible proved his impressive victory in the Holy Bull Stakes USA-G2) was no fluke by dominating the Florida Derby, coming home a three-length winner.

Oddly enough, the two colts are uncle and nephew in human terms, as Mendelssohn is a Scat Daddy half brother to four-time champion Beholder and to 2007 CashCall Futurity (USA-G1) winner Into Mischief, sire of Audible. Both have the pedigrees to indicate that 10 furlongs should be within their scope, and Mendelssohn appeared to have any amount left in the tank at the end of his romp over 9.5 furlongs. Like the other Derby contenders, Audible has yet to be tested over more than the 9 furlongs he covered with aplomb at Gulfstream, but his professionalism and amenability to rating will help him out. Further, while his first two dams are by speedy sires, the family in back of them has plenty of stout Claiborne Farm breeding behind it.

By the time the dust has settled enough to reveal the likely field for the 2018 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, there will probably be at least a couple more impressive performances to savor and consider. Nonetheless, the bar for being considered a top contender for this year's Derby has just been raised quite a bit from where it was on Friday.

A Treasure From the Past

7/3/2017

When Windstoss came storming down the course to land the IDEE Deutches Derby (GER-G1), he did more than provide a Group 1 win for his connections and give promise of carrying on an important German sire line. He also provided living proof that the family of one of racing's greatest legends, Kincsem, is still alive and well, despite the vicissitudes of death and war.

Kincsem, whose name means "my treasure," may have been the greatest race mare of all time. Foaled in Hungary in 1874, she was homely in appearance but was perfection itself when racing. She ran 54 times and never knew defeat, winning major races in England and France as well as taking virtually every prize worth having in central Europe. When she died of colic in 1887, the people of Hungary mourned for the loss of their national heroine as if she had been human.

Kinscem left just five foals behind, though two became Classic winners: Budagyönge, a top-class filly who defeated males in the 1885 Deutches Derby, and Ollyan-Nincs, who won the 1886 Hungarian St. Leger. The latter filly proved to be Kinscem's primary link to the future, her descendants becoming a notable Classic family in central Europe. Unfortunately, Ollyan-Nincs' family took tremendous losses during the two World Wars, but it has survived in Germany as the noted "W" family descended from the Polish-bred mare Winnica, who was imported to Germany in 1922.

Of course, Windstoss is so far removed in time and generations from Kincsem that, aside from the contributions of mitochondrial DNA, his ability probably has far more to do with his immediate ancestry than with his link to his famous ancestress. Nonetheless, it is pleasant to think that at least a spark of her tremendous talent lives on in Germany's latest Classic winner.

2017 Triple Crown Trail: An Unexpected Song

4/29/2017

With the defections of Battalion Runner and Malagacy from the potential field for the Kentucky Derby--Presented by Yum! Brands (USA-G1), Sonneteer is now in the 20th slot and apparently will contest the race. Hope apparently does spring eternal, even though this colt has raced 10 times and has yet to find the finish line first.

The Derby has seen its share of maidens with far more in the way of high-flown hopes than credentials behind them, but only two have actually jumped from maidens to Classic winners in one step. The first was Sir Barton, who was entered as a pacemaker for his stablemate Billy Kelly. The entry ran one-two, only not in the order expected, and it is one of the ironies of racing history that as the season progressed, Billy Kelly ended up serving as a work horse for his vastly improved stablemate, now retroactively recognized as the first American Triple Crown winner. (An extremely talented horse as well as a hickory-tough one, Billy Kelly won seven stakes races in 1919 in addition to helping keep Sir Barton in shape, a task that burned out several of their stablemates.)

The other Derby winner to have entered the starting gate as a maiden was Brokers Tip, the last of Colonel Edward Riley Bradley's four Derby winners. A beautifully bred horse, he was also a thoroughly unsound one, and the Derby was his only flash of what might have been had he been gifted with better-constructed legs. He broke down in his next start, made an unsuccessful comeback attempt at 5 and retired with the Derby as his only victory in 14 starts.

Like both Sir Barton (second in the Futurity Stakes at 2) and Brokers Tip (third in the Cincinnati Trophy as a juvenile), Sonneteer has flashed some ability, running a respectable second behind Malagacy in the Rebel Stakes (USA-G2), and his fourth in the Arkansas Derby (USA-G1) was not a bad race either. Nonetheless, on the form he has shown thus far, he is a fair cut below the best of his age.

His pedigree also raises questions, not because of its quality but because of possible distance limitations. While two-time Breeders' Cup Sprint (USA-G1) winner Midnight Lute was trained for sprints primarily because of an acquired breathing problem, he seems to be more a sire of intermediate distance horses than classic types. The dam, Ours, is by the speedy Unbridled's Song horse Half Ours, whose biggest win was at 7 furlongs, and is a half sister to Dublin, who won the Hopeful Stakes (USA-G1) at 2 but did not train on as well as could have been hoped at 3 in spite of being sired by Afleet Alex. The next dam, Classy Mirage, also had distance limitations, having taken her biggest win in the 7-furlong Ballerina Handicap (USA-G1). The family is an excellent one that has included some first-rate horses that could stay classic distances, notably Dark Mirage, Java Gold and Indian Skimmer, but it has generally required crossing to sires that could contribute stamina to get horses capable of going 10 furlongs or more in top company.

The Derby has seen some very strange things happen, and Sonneteer could become the third maiden to take the historic race. If he does, he will conclude a topsy-turvy spring season on perhaps a fitting note, if not an expected one.

2017 Triple Crown Trail: Dreaming Big

4/3/2017

By this time, anyone paying the slightest attention to the 3-year-old racing scene in North America knows that Always Dreaming turned in the fastest Florida Derby (USA-G1) in 39 years. The Bodemeister colt did it with the brilliance that characterized his sire, too, showing the ability to carry a high cruising speed over a route---and it took a very good colt in I'll Have Another to run Bodemeister down in the 2012 Kentucky Derby (USA-G2) and Preakness Stakes (USA-G1I).

The distaff side of Always Dreaming's pedigree does not exactly shout 10 furlongs, but then neither did the pedigree of his broodmare sire In Excess, who scorched the legs out from under four Grade 1 fields at distances from 8 to 10 furlongs in 1991. Fast horses tend to make their own racing luck, and a horse with the ability to click off nearly even fractions throughout a route race is extremely dangerous whether skimming along on an uncontested lead or stalking.

The down side to Always Dreaming, as with many others in this year's possible Kentucky Derby field, is his lack of racing experience. No one knows how he will respond if racing circumstances take him out of his preferred running style, and no one knows whether he is rising up to a peak at the right time or whether he will regress from Saturday's effort at precisely the wrong time. So far, the only potential North American-based Derby horses to have demonstrated that they can fire consistently are Gunnevera, who ran his usual solid race behind Always Dreaming to be third off a six-wide final turn, and Girvin, who added the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (USA-G2) to his earlier score in the Risen Star Stakes (USA-G2)---and Girvin's rather erratic course in the stretch was not as solid as one might like to see for a final Derby prep. The other possible horse who has shown he can put good races back to back is Thunder Snow, whose successes have come in Dubai.

Next week's 9-furlong preps should sort out most of the pretenders from the contenders, and many horsemen look to McCraken to re-establish himself at the top of the Derby pileup. Nonetheless, for this week at least, the crown belongs to Always Dreaming. We'll see if he can keep it when it counts.

2017 Triple Crown Trail: Another Week, Another Contender

3/20/2017

The carousel of 3-year-old males has been revolving so rapidly this year that it's hard to get excited over another new face, no matter how good his most recent performance. So far, the only thing that's been consistent about most of this crop is a distressing inconsistency, with each hero of a few weeks sinking back into mediocrity in the next outing---assuming they last that long. Those that have raced again after their moment in the sun have at least been more fortunate than Mastery, whose career as a Kentucky Derby favorite lasted about five seconds after he crossed the line in the San Felipe Stakes (USA-G2) as a dominant winner.

One hopes that unbeaten McCraken and likely Xpressbet.com Florida Derby (USA-G1) favorite Gunnevera will prove the exceptions on their next outings; the former has been brilliant throughout his brief career before suffering a minor physical setback, and Gunnevera is a seasoned and honest horse who is vulnerable to an unfavorable pace scenario but nonetheless fires his shot every time. In the meantime, the latest "new kid on the block," Malagacy, admittedly looked good in winning the Rebel Stakes (USA-G2) and certainly has the pedigree to be a contender. A son of 2011 Preakness Stakes (USA-G1) hero Shackleford out of the unraced Dehere mare Classiest Gem, he has Pleasant Colony (1981 Kentucky Derby and Preakness), Halo (sire of two Kentucky Derby winners) and Northern Dancer (1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness) as the sires of his next three dams.

Like so many of this year's prep race winners, Malagacy is a very lightly raced horse. He blew the doors off a Gulfstream Park maiden special weight by 15 lengths on January 4, earning a Thoroughbred Daily News "Rising Star" designation, then came back to win a 6.5 furlong allowance at the same track by 7 lengths. His win in the Rebel was solid and professional for such a green colt, but a perfect stalking trip with pretty even fractions against a rather uninspired group of rivals is a long flight from facing the best of the division in a crowded and contentious Derby field where the ability to produce a burst of tactical speed at the right moment is often the difference between victory and defeat.

Malagacy may come back in the Arkansas Derby (USA-G1), and a good win there would certainly solidify his credentials for Kentucky. However, he probably does not need the Arkansas Derby to have enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field. That's good for trainer Todd Pletcher, who can get another race in or skip it according to what he feels his colt's best interests are, but is more problematic for those trying to get a line on just how good Malagacy really is.

2017 Triple Crown Trail: Rising and Falling Stars

2/26/2017

In the spring of the year, a Thoroughbred colt's reputation can shoot up with the speed of a dot.com launch in the late 1990s, or crash even faster. This year's Risen Star Stakes (USA-G2) illustrated the point beautifully. As graded stakes winners Guest Suite and Mo Town failed to look like winners at any point, Girvin angled out from the rail at the top of the stretch and used a sharp burst of speed to seize the lead, the race, and the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

How long he will stay there is anyone's guess, as is how far he will stay. Sired by 2008 Wood Memorial (USA-G1) winner Take of Ekati from the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon (also the dam of 2015 Iroquois Stakes, USA-G3, winner Cocked and Loaded, by Colonel John), he could be anything from a miler to a true classic horse depending on which of the mix of influences in his pedigree proves dominant.

Girvin illustrates the rapidity with which Mr. Prospector's influence has spread in the American Thoroughbred population, as he is inbred 4x5x4x5 to Claiborne Farm's great sire, as well as 5x5 to Secretariat. He also has a pedigree angle guaranteed to intrigue Louisiana fans, as his second dam, the speedy Yes It's True mare Catch My Fancy, is inbred 3x2 to Monique Rene. The queen of Louisiana racing in the early 1980s, Monique Rene won 15 stakes races at Louisiana tracks, mostly over sprint distances, and compiled an overall record of 29 wins and eight placings from 45 starts.

The next outing for Girvin is likely to be the Louisiana Derby (USA-G2), a race that hasn't really been inspiring as a source of Kentucky Derby winners. No horse has pulled off the Louisiana Derby--Kentucky Derby double since Grindstone in 1996, though last year's winner, Gun Runner, ran a solid third at Louisville. Still, a good horse can come from anywhere, and a solid win in the final leg of the Fair Grounds' series of Derby preps would mark Girvin as a legitimate contender for the roses.

2017 Triple Crown Trail: What Goes Around Comes Around

2/20/2017

In 1989, a fiery near-black colt with a hard-luck back story that included a near-fatal illness and a van crash upset "sure thing" Easy Goer for the Kentucky Derby (USA-G1). Sunday Silence went on to prove his victory was no fluke, taking both the Preakness Stakes (USA-G1) and Breeders' Cup Classic (USA-G1) from his magnificent rival, and earned honors as America's Horse of the Year. Even so, he could not find a place at a major Kentucky stud farm after being forced into retirement by injury as a 4-year-old and was exported to Japan, where he became the greatest sire in that nation's history.

Because of his location, Sunday Silence never had the opportunity to have his best offspring compete in America's most iconic race, but a grandson may be in position to bring Sunday Silence's story full circle. Named Epicharis, the colt preserved his unbeaten record in Japan's Hyacinth Stakes to earn a guaranteed berth in the Kentucky Derby---Presented by Yum! Brands if his connections choose to avail themselves of it.

Although Japanese racing is conducted mostly on turf, the Hyacinth Stakes is raced on the dirt inner track at Tokyo Race Course, and there was reason to think Epicharis might take to the surface even before that, as his sire, Sunday Silence's son Gold Allure, won the 2002 Japan Dirt Derby. Stamina should be no issue for the colt, as his broodmare sire is 1994 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (FR-G1) winner Carnegie. The next dam's sire, however, is Maruzensky (by Nijinsky II), who was the Japanese champion juvenile male of 1976 and who brings a dash of miler speed to the pedigree.

Epicharis has yet to prove himself over a route, but he showed a nice combination of tactical speed and determination in the 1600-meter Hyacinth after finding racing room on the inside in mid-stretch. His connections have indicated that he may resurface in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2), and he would need to be a tough one indeed to ship to Dubai, win there, and then ship to Kentucky in condition to have a fighting chance in the Run for the Roses. Nonetheless, "tough" was always a word that described Sunday Silence, and if Epicharis is of the same stripe, look for him to be the hero of one of the more intriguing stories surrounding this year's Kentucky Derby.

2017 Triple Crown Trail: More Than a Ghost of a Chance

2/12/2017

McCraken went into this last weekend as the buzz horse on most Triple Crown lists, and he made his 2017 debut in style. After setting a new track record in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (USA-G3), the unbeaten Ghostzapper colt will likely make his next start as a heavy favorite for the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (USA-G2) on March 11.

McCraken, however, isn't the only 3-year-old son of Ghostzapper to have made a splash in his 2017 debut. Making only his second lifetime start, Iliad drew off nicely in the stretch to win the San Vicente Stakes (USA-G2), finishing the seven-furlong trip in racehorse time of 1:21.62, Having won his debut over six furlongs at Los Alamitos, the colt is now in nice position to stretch out step by step in the Santa Anita series of Triple Crown preps and will likely start next in the San Felipe Stakes (USA-G2) over 8.5 furlongs on March 11.

With his first three dams having been sired by Seeking the Gold, Wild Again and Nodouble---all horses that could stay 10 furlongs or better in top company---it will be more of a surprise if McCraken can't stay the Kentucky Derby trip than if he can. Iliad is more of a question mark. In spite of Ghostzapper's own ability to get 10 furlongs, he has been as apt to throw speed as stamina, and Iliad's broodmare sire is You and I, who showed his best form in the 1-mile Metropolitan Handicap (USA-G1). Swoon, the second dam's sire, is a bit more promising as a source of stamina: a son of Secretariat, he was a stakes winner at 10 furlongs and stakes-placed at 14 furlongs. Nonetheless, with a sprinting dam and a miler granddam, Iliad is as likely to be a one-turn horse as a two-turn runner.

Regardless, Ghostzapper has emerged from the weekend of February 11-12 as a stallion with an excellent chance of getting his first winner of an American Triple Crown race. As both are bred to improve with maturity, with any luck, both will progress as they continue on their separate paths down the Triple Crown trail, setting up a potentially interesting confrontation on the first Saturday in May. Time will tell.

2017 Triple Crown Trail: No Surprises

1/22/2017

McCraken's win in last fall's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (USA-G2) keeps looking better and better. Last weekend, KJCS fourth Uncontested used his front-running speed to overwhelm his rivals in the Smarty Jones Stakes. This week, another of the KJCS field, third-place Guest Suite, emulated Uncontested by getting his first stakes win, this in the Lecomte Stakes (USA-G3). While the margin was only a length, the gelding was clearly much the best and was geared down at the wire.

Whatever the reason why Guest Suite was gelded, it certainly wasn't based on his pedigree. A son of four-time Grade I winner Quality Road, the leading American third-crop sire of 2016, Guest Suite is a scion of one of the best families in the American Stud Book. He is a great-grandson of 1992 Kentucky Broodmare of the Year Weekend Surprise (by Secretariat), whose four stakes winners include 1992 American Horse of the Year and two-time American champion sire A.P. Indy (by Seattle Slew) and 1990 Preakness Stakes winner Summer Squall (by Storm Bird).

Welcome Surprise, Weekend Surprise's 1997 daughter by Seeking the Gold, was not quite as talented as her half brothers but still had enough ability to be a graded stakes winner, capturing the 2000 Dogwood Stakes (USA-III). Bred to 2004 American Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, she produced the winner Guest House, who produced Guest Suite as her second foal.

With this kind of genetic background, it is hardly surprising that Guest Suite should have turned out a nice horse. Whether he is more than that remains to be seen, as he needs to show that he can continue improving his form over dry tracks (the Lecomte was run on a muddy sealed track) and against better rivals. Nonetheless, if he runs into a roadblock on the way to the Kentucky Derby---Presented by Yum! Brands (USA-G1), it seems safe to say that it won't be his breeding that stops him.

2017 Triple Crown Trail---And They're Off!

1/2/2017

January is a month as uncertain as its weather for newly turned 3-year-olds. Generally speaking, those racing at this time are not the division's top prospects from the year before; those will not usually be seen under silks until February or early March. The colts taking their first tentative steps on the road to Churchill Downs in January are often those who waited until the last quarter of the year to break their maidens, too late to get into the mix for the major fall 2-year-old races. Sometimes, like 2006 Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) winner Barbaro, they become stars. More often, they have their brief moment and then fade from view as the sophomore competition becomes more intense.

Which way El Areeb will go isn't known yet, but he certainly looked the part of a rising 3-year-old hopeful in taking the January 2 Jerome Handicap (USA-G3), the first points race of 2017 for this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby. Already a stakes winner over 6 furlongs in November, the gray son of Exchange Rate ran off and hid from six rivals in his first test over a route. That earned him his first graded win and 10 points toward a Derby starting berth, but more importantly, it revealed a willingness to rate off a rival until asked. As both his previous wins had been scored in front-running fashion, the new tactics were an important step in the colt's mental maturation and bode well for his ability to compete at the next level.

El Areeb is a son of the late Exchange Rate, who scored his biggest win in the 2001 Tom Fool Handicap (USA-G2). Before writing El Areeb off as a speed horse who got lucky over a wet track, however, it's worth remembering that Exchange Rate's progeny include stakes winners at up to 2500 meters (about 12 furlongs). Further, El Areeb hails from a solid Canadian family that includes Queen's Plate winner Regal Intention and Canadian Oaks winners Tilt My Halo and Tiffany's Secret, and his dam is a daughter of 1992 Belmont Stakes (USA-I) and Breeders' Cup Classic (USA-G1) winner A.P. Indy. He will still have to prove that he has inherited the speed and the stamina to become a contender along the Triple Crown trail, but today's win was certainly a step in the right direction and a positive omen for his future.