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Mares on Monday: Does She Really Mean It?

4/13/2026

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​As the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) approaches, it seems worthwhile to go back and have a look at fillies who will rightfully be among the favorites but have not yet been reviewed in this column. Among them is Meaning, who races for the same connections as last year’s Preakness Stakes (USA-G1) winner, Journalism. She is lightly raced but has not put a foot wrong so far in 2026, winning the Las Virgenes Stakes (USA-L) over Explora in her first outing of the season. In her second, she won the Santa Anita Oaks (USA-G2) on April 4 in professional style. Her only loss in four lifetime starts was a respectable fourth in last year’s NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (USA-G1); in that race, she was beaten three-quarters of a length, three lengths, and a head by Super Corredora (who will not contest the Oaks), Explora, and Percy’s Bar. That’s slightly less than four lengths in all for a filly who was making only her second lifetime start, and against some very tough company.

Meaning’s task in the Santa Anita Oaks was probably made easier by the absence of Explora, who had won the Honeybee Stakes (USA-G3) on March 1 at Oaklawn Park over Counting Stars, then had to miss the March 27 Fantasy Stakes (USA-G2), in which the improving Counting Stars scored an impressive win. Nevertheless, Meaning has shown both consistency and gameness, dueling Explora into defeat in the Las Virgenes and finishing willingly under a hand ride in the Santa Anita Oaks while appearing to have something left in the tank after a brief tussle with Brooklyn Blonde in upper stretch.

As a daughter of Gun Runner (also the sire of likely Kentucky Oaks contenders Life of Joy and Always a Runner), stamina seems unlikely to be an issue for Meaning. A key figure here is her third dam, Colcon. Sired by Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) and Preakness Stakes winner Pleasant Colony, Colcon was produced from Continental Girl, a stakes winner sired by 1977 Irish St. Leger (IRE-G1) winner Transworld out of a mare by the staying Sicambre son Shantung. This is a concentration of bloodlines from horses that definitely liked a distance of ground, and often the more the better.

A stakes winner over 9 furlongs on grass, Continental Girl is a half sister to 1980 Charles H. Strub Stakes (USA-G1) winner Super Moment (by Big Spruce), whose Strub win came at a time when the race was contested at 10 furlongs. Likewise, Colcon is a half sister to 1990 Strub winner Flying Continental (by Flying Paster), also victorious over the 10-furlong distance.

Colcon herself was a three-time Grade 3 winner over 9 furlongs on turf, and given the wealth of staying blood in her background, it was no wonder that she was mostly put to speedier sires. She was a disappointing broodmare, and her 2009 daughter by the record-breaking sprinter-miler Elusive Quality did not help her record. Named Starlight Lady, she never even made it to the races, but she did produce Figure of Speech, an Into Mischief filly who ran third in the Spinaway Stakes (USA-G1) in her second lifetime start. Figure of Speech ran twice more at three without success and was retired. Meaning is her second foal and first winner, and Figure of Speech has since produced a 2024 filly by Curlin and a 2025 colt by Flightline.

With staying power looking like a non-issue, the main question for Meaning is how much of an upside she has. In an Oaks field in which any of a half-dozen fillies could lay claim to favoritism on a given day, the winner may well be the one who can produce the best step forward from her previous form when the lilies are on the line. On paper, Meaning, who was able to get a solid win last out without needing a personal best to do it, seems to be in a good position to find some improvement at the right time. Whether or not she can actually do so—well, that’s why they run horse races.
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Mares on Monday: Raise a Toast to Percy's Bar

4/6/2026

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​The most-hyped potential member of this year’s Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) field has probably been Zany, who came into the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (USA-G1) unbeaten following a Suncoast Stakes romp over next-out Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks (USA-G2) winner Life of Joy. Following the Ashland, Zany is almost certainly still bound for the Kentucky Oaks, but it will not be as an unbeaten. Keeneland specialist Percy’s Bar, who has never finished anywhere but first at her favorite track, kept that record intact with a 2¼-length score over Zany. A sharp inside move on the turn for home gave Percy’s Bar the jump on her rival, and she had no difficulty in staying clear of Zany and her other four rivals to claim the victory.

Technically, Percy’s Bar (named in honor of the late Percy Poole, a popular Keeneland bartender) is not unbeaten at Keeneland, having been disqualified to second in last fall’s Darley Alcibiades Stakes (USA-G1) for bumping official winner Tommy Jo. But there is no question that she likes the track; her average margin in her three starts there has been three lengths. Friday’s win was her first official Grade 1 score and raised her overall record to three wins, two seconds, and one third from six lifetime starts.

Percy’s Bar is the second Grade 1 winner for multiple graded stakes winner Upstart, a son of the successful A.P. Indy horse Flatter. Coincidentally, Upstart’s other Grade 1 winner is Zandon, who got his top-level brackets in the masculine counterpart to the Ashland, the Blue Grass Stakes. Upstart got his chance at stud thanks to former Kentucky governor Brereton Jones, who brought the horse into the stallion lineup at his Airdrie Stud near Midway, Kentucky.

Jones, previously the breeder and owner of Kentucky Oaks winners Proud Spell (2008) and Believe You Can (2012) and the owner of 2015 Oaks heroine Lovely Maria, bred Percy’s Bar from unraced Honestly Deb, a daughter of 2010 Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) winner Super Saver who was acquired for just US$16,000 from the 2020 Keeneland November mixed sale. Produced from 2003 Alcibiades Stakes (USA-G2) third Deb’s Charm, a daughter of 1997 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes (USA-G1) winner Silver Charm, Honestly Deb is a half sister to stakes winners Simply Spiteful (by Speightstown) and Praetereo (by Giant’s Causeway) and is also a half sister to More Mojo (by More Than Ready), dam of stakes winner Tabeguache (by Into Mischief).

Deb’s Charm, in turn, is a half sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Tasha’s Miracle (by Harlan’s Holiday) and to stakes-placed Early Vintage (by Jump Start), dam of Canadian stakes winner Conquest Top Gun (by Pioneerof the Nile). Produced from the winner Ms. Cuvee Napa (by Relaunch out of Grade 2 winner A Penny Is a Penny, by Temperence Hill), Deb’s Charm is also a half sister to Harve de Grace (by Boston Harbor), dam of 2016 Mother Goose Stakes (USA-G1) winner Off the Tracks (by Curlin) and 2010 West Virginia Derby (USA-G2) winner Concord Point (by Tapit), and to Tasha’s Star (by Spanish Steps), dam of Japanese listed stakes winners Esmeraldina (by Harlan’s Holiday) and Consigliere (by Drefong).

Now owned by Hat Creek Racing after being picked up for a modest US$52,000 from the 2024 Keeneland September yearling sale, Percy’s Bar has earned just over a million dollars and appears poised to earn more for her owners and trainer Ben Colebrook. She already has a win over the Churchill Downs surface and is Grade 1-placed at both Saratoga and Del Mar, suggesting that she does not have to take her track with her. Considering that the Ashland was her first start in five months, she should have plenty in the tank to take with her to the Kentucky Oaks—and if she is successful there, no one will blame Keeneland staff for raising a toast to their “house horse” and to the memory of her namesake.


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Mares on Monday: Counting Stars Has Fantasy of Counting Lilies

3/30/2026

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​If the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) were being run at Oaklawn Park rather than Churchill Downs, Counting Stars might well be a short-priced favorite. Any doubts as to whether the Mark Casse trainee likes the track were completely resolved last Friday, when the filly unleashed a powerful move to mow down early leader Empath and draw off to a 5½-length win in the Fantasy Stakes (USA-G2) while merely being shown the whip. Martha Washington Stakes (USA-L) winner Search Party also made a sustained move after running in mid-pack early and was a clear second best, 9½ lengths ahead of Taken by the Wind. With the win, Counting Stars ran her record to four wins from seven starts with earnings of US$972,606, clearly far more than was expected from her when she sold for US$13,000 as a Keeneland September yearling. (West Point Thoroughbreds later paid US$150,000 for her at the 2025 Ocala Breeders’ Sales April sale of 2-year-olds in training, but they have still gotten a nice return on investment from her.)

The Fantasy was a welcome turnaround from two starts earlier, when Counting Stars completely stopped on the second turn of the Martha Washington and was cantered in. Whatever troubled her was not in evidence in her next outing, the Honeybee Stakes (USA-G3). Slow to find her best stride, Counting Stars motored strongly through the stretch off a four-wide move and was slowly getting to winner Explora, who held her safe by three-quarters of a length. Explora came down with a fever prior to the Fantasy, making Counting Stars’ task easier, but on the other side of the coin, Counting Stars stayed closer to the early pace in the Fantasy and, if anything, displayed a sharper turn of foot when she launched her bid. The Fantasy was her third stakes win, all at Oaklawn, and was her first graded win, and the 75 points she earned toward a starting berth in the Kentucky Oaks will be more than enough to get her into the gate.

If Counting Stars is not counting lilies rather than stars at the end of the Kentucky Oaks, it is unlikely to be because she lacks staying power. She is a second-crop daughter of 2020 Santa Anita Derby (USA-G1) winner Honor A. P., whose sire Honor Code (by 1992 American Horse of the Year A.P. Indy) was the American champion older male of 2015 and whose dam Hollywood Story won the 2006 Vanity Handicap (USA-G1) over 9 furlongs. On the distaff side, Counting Stars’ broodmare sire is 2012 Haskell Invitational Stakes (USA-G1) winner and Belmont Stakes (USA-G1) runner-up Paynter, sired from 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic (USA-G1) winner Awesome Again out of a full sister to two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow. Given these connections, it would be an odd thing if Counting Stars could not get 9 furlongs.

Counting Stars is the first foal of Paynterbynumbers, whose only other foal is a yearling filly by Epicenter. A mare whose two wins came at a mile and a mile and one-sixteenth, Paynterbynumbers was produced from the stakes-placed sprinter Ruth and Neva, whose taste for shorter distances probably came through her sire, 1994 American champion sprinter Cherokee Run. Ruth and Neva is a half sister to 2018 Fantasy Stakes (USA-G3) winner Sassy Sienna (by Midshipman) and to Grade 3-placed Newton John (by Stormin Fever), whose distance capacities better reflect the legacy of their dam, Tap for Gold. Although Tap for Gold did not race, she is by 1992 American champion older male Pleasant Tap, the best racing son of 1981 American champion 3-year-old male Pleasant Colony. She is a half sister to Cherokee Reef (by the Pleasant Colony horse Cherokee Colony), a stakes winner at 9 furlongs, and to Irish juvenile stakes winner Chanting (by Danehill).

Of the major tracks of the United States, Oaklawn Park is generally held to have the most similar racing surface to that of Churchill Downs, and this bodes well for Counting Stars’ chances in the “Lilies for the Fillies”—the more so since she scored her maiden win at Churchill Downs. With seven starts now under her belt, she will also be one of the more seasoned members of the field. She appears to be on a rising trajectory, and any improvement on the form she showed in the Fantasy should have a good chance of landing her in the winner’s circle on May 1.
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Mares on Monday: Life of Joy Lives Her Best Life in the Fair Grounds Oaks

3/23/2026

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On paper, Bella Ballerina was the class of the field going into Saturday’s Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks (USA-G2). She ran well, remaining consistent with her previous form, but that form was only good enough for second best. Making a strong move forward off the form she showed when second to Zany in the Suncoast Stakes on February 7, Life of Joy swooped toward the front around the far turn, had a clear lead as the field straightened away, and kept widening under a hand ride to finish 3¾ lengths in front. The win was the filly’s second stakes score, pairing with a win in the Rags to Riches Stakes at Churchill Downs last October, and brought her lifetime record to three wins and a second from five starts. It also moved her to the top of the leader board for a starting spot in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1), which will probably be her next start.

A daughter of Gun Runner, who needs no introduction as a sire, Life of Joy is the first foal of the stakes-placed Malibu Moon mare Jordan’s Leo, herself the first named foal from Lady Is a Lioness. A daughter of 2005 American champion turf male Leroidesanimaux—a horse whose blistering turn of foot was perhaps echoed in Life of Joy’s sharp move to the lead in Saturday’s race—Lady Is a Lioness never raced but is a half sister to Grade 1-placed multiple stakes winner Roman Treasure (by Roman Ruler) and to multiple stakes-placed Beautiful Gem (by Mr. Prospector). Another half sister to Lady Is a Lioness, Hot Match (by Mr. Prospector), is the dam of 2003 Silverbulletday Stakes (USA-G2) winner Belle of Perintown (by Dehere), and Lady Is a Lioness is also a half sister to Jeanne’s Honor (by Honour and Glory), dam of listed stakes winner Going to Kukaro (by Speightstown).

Lady Is a Lioness was the last foal produced from 1988 Fantasy Stakes (USA-G1) winner and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Jeanne Jones (by Nijinsky II), whose talented but unsound half brother Avenue of Flags (by Seattle Slew) became a good regional sire in the Southwest. The next dam in the tail-female line, 1983 El Encino Stakes (USA-G3) winner Beautiful Glass (by multiple Grade 2 winner Pass the Glass, by Buckpasser), is a half sister to dead-heat 1990 Beverly Hills Handicap (USA-G1) winner Beautiful Spirit (by Alydar) and to unraced Big Spirit (by Big Spruce), dam of the popular California racehorse Big Pal (by Beau’s Eagle).

On bloodlines, Life of Joy should have no trouble with the 9-furlong distance of the Kentucky Oaks, and her Equibase speed figure of 97 puts her among the top five possible candidates for the race. However, that figure was a 16-point jump from her previous race and 14 points above her previous lifetime best. This could indicate a period of rapid development (not uncommon for 3-year-olds in the spring), or it could signal a next-out regression as a big effort catches up with her. The former would make her a likely top-three finisher in the Oaks; the later would probably see her among the also-rans. The other area of concern for her is her off-the-pace running style, which could put her into some traffic trouble in a big field. Still, the quick gear change she pulled out in the Fair Grounds Oaks is hard to ignore, and that ability could be her ticket to a bouquet of lilies on May 1.
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Mares on Monday: A Splendid Result in the Beholder Mile

3/9/2026

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Splendora may be lightly raced, but she has a way of making her presence felt when she does step onto the racetrack. A sharp winner of the 2025 PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (USA-G1) at Del Mar after a tuneup win in the Tranquility Lake Stakes over the same track, the now 5-year-old mare came back after a three-month freshener to win the D. Wayne Lukas Stakes (USA-G2) at Santa Anita on February 7. She returned to the Grade 1 level in the B. Wayne Hughes Beholder Mile Stakes presented by FanDuel a month later and looked every inch the part of a 1-10 favorite, simply cruising over four outmatched opponents to score by 5¾ lengths. Her lifetime record stands at seven wins and four seconds from 12 starts with US$1,160,800 in the bank, a nice return on the US$125,000 she cost as a yearling at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale.

Bred in Maryland by the Elkstone Group, Splendora is the first top-level winner sired by the Into Mischief son Audible. The winner of the 2018 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby (USA-G1), Audible is out of the sprint winner Blue Devil Bel, whose sire Gilded Time was the American champion 2-year-old male of 1992. Audible's female line traces back to Romanita, the 1956 American champion 2-year-old filly.

Splendora is the second foal of Miss Freeze, whose first foal is the winning Always Dreaming mare Firsttimeinforever. Sold for US$45,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November mixed sale while carrying the Breeders’ Cup winner, she has since produced the unraced Demarchelier 3-year-old Oracle of Beaufort and a 2025 Tiz the Law filly before being covered by National Treasure for 2026.

The winner of the restricted Lynbrook Stakes over 6 furlongs at Belmont as a juvenile of 2014, Miss Freeze is a daughter of the Giant’s Causeway horse Frost Giant, who got his signature win in the 2008 Suburban Handicap (USA-G1). She was produced from the winner Reata’s Vixen, whose Irish-bred sire, Sligo Bay (by Sadler’s Wells), won the 2002 Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (USA-G1) and was a prominent sire in Canada. Sligo Bay was produced from Angelic Song, a full sister to 1980 Canadian Horse of the Year Glorious Song, 1983 American champion 2-year-old male Devil’s Bag, and Grade 2 winner and 2005 American champion sire Saint Ballado.

A half sister to multiple listed stakes winner Royal Currier (by Red Bullet), who spent his racing career sprinting up and down the East Coast, Reata’s Vixen did her best running at at a mile or a mile and one-sixteenth on the turf but apparently passed on more of the speed of her broodmare sire, two-time Carter Handicap (USA-G1) winner Lite the Fuse. The female line traces back to 1966 Kentucky Oaks winner Native Street, a speedy filly who owed her Oaks win over a mile and one-sixteenth to sheer determination (she never won a stakes race before or afterward at more than 6 furlongs) and passed on that speed and gameness to her descendants.

Splendora’s pedigree shows a mix of speed and stamina elements, but given that her sire, her broodmare sire, and her second dam’s sire all did their best running around two turns, her preference for shorter distances seems a little surprising even given the speedy nature of her direct female line. Nevertheless, she was beaten five lengths by Seismic Beauty in her one try at 9 furlongs (the 2025 Santa Margarita Stakes, USA-G2), and the horse in front of you is always more important than the pedigree on paper. Pedigrees show genetic potentials; the horse itself is the reality, and it’s a wise owner and trainer who let the horse rather than a piece of paper dictate what it wants to do.

Future plans for Splendora are still unsettled, but trainer Bob Baffert and co-owner Michael Talla (whose By Talla Racing shares ownership in the mare with Boyd Racing) have indicated that the long-term goal will probably be a defense of her title in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint with an Eclipse Award in mind. Should she remain sound and healthy, her results up to now suggest that she has a good chance of doing just that,
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Mares on Monday: She Be Smooth Makes It Look Easy in Davona Dale

3/2/2026

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​Following a solid win in the Forward Gal Stakes (USA-G3) on January 31, On Time Girl was a 4-5 favorite for Gulfstream Park’s Davona Dale Stakes (USA-G2) on February 28. She was a reasonable choice in a field in which only one of the other six fillies, Cash Run Stakes winner Haute Diva, had won anything but a maiden special weight. Maiden winner She Be Smooth had other ideas, though. Making only her second lifetime start, the Todd Pletcher trainee dawdled behind the field early but made up nearly six lengths between the three-quarter pole and the stretch call to go from over four lengths off the lead to a length and a half in front. From there, she kept widening under mild urging, finishing six lengths ahead of My Miss Mo, who held the place by half a length over On Time Girl.

A Calumet Farm homebred, She So Smooth is the fourth stakes winner and first graded stakes winner from the first crop of 2021 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (USA-G1) winner Lexitonian. The stallion is a son of Speightstown out of the Tapit mare Riviera Romper, whose dam, Swap Fliparoo (by Exchange Rate), won the 2006 Test Stakes (USA-G1). This seems a speed-oriented pedigree, but Lexitonian is also the sire of Fire and Wine (out of Double Latte, by The Factor), who won the 9-furlong Coronation Futurity last year at Woodbine.

On the dam’s side, She Be Smooth is the last foal of 2009 Ogden Phipps Handicap (USA-G1) winner Seattle Smooth. The dam of six previous winners, including Grade 3-placed Seattle Slang and minor stakes-placed Gunfire (both by Tapit), Seattle Smooth is by Quiet American, now the broodmare sire of 147 stakes winners, and is out of unraced Our Seattle Star (by Washington D. C. International, USA-G1, winner Seattle Song), making her a half sister to stakes-placed Storming Starlet and to Moonshine Gal (by Forest Wildcat), dam of 2018 Ladies Handicap (USA-L) winner Just Got Out (by Harlington).

A half sister to multiple restricted stakes winner Rare Star (by Rare Performer), Our Seattle Star is out of stakes-placed Starsburg (by Whitesburg), a half sister to minor stakes winner Bold Decision (by Handsome Boy). Produced from juvenile stakes winner Dot’s Star (by the good juvenile Su Ka Wa, a son of 1956 American champion 2-year-old male Barbizon), Starsburg is part of a line of descent from Helen Barbee, a tough race mare crowned by racing historians as the American champion older female of 1912.

On paper, She Be Smooth looks more like a come-from-behind miler than a filly that really wants a two-turn distance, but one never can tell for certain without trying, and with 50 points toward a starting berth in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) already in the bank, there seems no reason not to try her at a longer trip and plenty of reason to do so. Although come-from-behind runners always run the risk of encountering traffic jams, the responsiveness she showed to Flavien Prat’s handling and her quick acceleration should serve her well in a larger field and give her a good chance to prove herself as a genuine Kentucky Oaks contender against stronger competition.
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Mares on Monday: Haulin Ice Hauls in a Cool Million

2/23/2026

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​A restricted race for Arkansas-breds, the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes at Oaklawn Park is not the sort of contest that usually showcases racing’s heroes. Last Friday’s edition was an exception to the rule. Gaining her second consecutive victory in this event, Haulin Ice made a massive overlay out of her 1-5 odds as she sailed home 11¾ lengths ahead of her nearest rival. The win made her the first Arkansas-bred millionaire and cemented her status as the greatest racing idol produced in the state since the “Arkansas Traveler,” Nodouble, won back-to-back national championships in the handicap male division in 1969 and 1970.

To be sure, Haulin’ Ice is not the equal of Nodouble, who won several stakes now classed as Grade 1; her best efforts in 2025 landed her a pair of Grade 3 wins in the Vagrancy Stakes at the spring Belmont at the Big A meeting and the Princess Rooney Stakes at Gulfstream. Nevertheless, the now 5-year-old mare has been a model of consistency, racking up 11 wins and 5 seconds in her 20 starts, and if her race on Friday was any indication, she is back and better than ever for 2026. Add her flashy gray coloration to her speed, her willingness, and her off-the-beaten-trail origins, and you have a racehorse that fans find easy to take to their hearts.

Haulin Ice is from the first crop of Louisiana-based Coal Front, whose sire, the Bernardini horse Stay Thirsty, won the 2011 Travers Stakes (USA-G1) and 2012 Cigar Mile Handicap (USA-G1) but has not had stud success commensurate with his racing ability. The winner of five graded/Group stakes races including the 2017 Amsterdam Stakes (USA-G2) and the 2019 Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2), Coal Front is the second-leading earner for his sire behind multiple Grade 1 winner Mind Control. He had a breakout year for a regional stallion in 2025 as he was also represented by Rebel Stakes (USA-G2) winner Coal Battle, now a millionaire in his own right, and Carter Handicap (USA-G2) winner Crazy Mason—all horses that were sired on a US$2,000 stud fee.

On the distaff side, Haulin Ice is the first foal of unraced She’s Smoke, whose sire Half Ours (by Unbridled’s Song) won the 2007 Richter Scale Breeders’ Cup Sprint Championship Handicap (USA-G2) and was a three-time champion sire in Louisiana according to The Blood-Horse. She’s Smoke is also the dam of the winner She’s So Coal, a 3-year-old full sister to Haulin Ice, and most recently produced a 2025 colt by Yorkton.

She’s Smoke is out of the More Than Ready mare Ready at Nine, who so far has managed to come up with only two winners from 10 named foals of racing age, A winner of one of 12 starts during her own racing career, Ready at Nine is out of Nine Pines, a daughter of 1992 Preakness Stakes (USA-G1) winner Pine Bluff, who won a non-blacktype stakes at Remington Park. She in turn is out of unraced Ninth Trestle (by Forty Niner), a half sister to 1993 Prince of Wales’s Stakes (ENG-G3) winner Placerville (by Mr. Prospector) out of multiple Grade 1 winner Classy Cathy (by Private Account). Aside from Placerville, the results obtained from this female line of descent have been disappointing up to now given its opportunities. Yet those opportunities were not entirely wasted; they formed a genetic pool that still held enough in the way of superior genes to come up with Haulin Ice when opportunity arrived in the form of a talented and very well-bred stallion.

Coal Front is quite an interesting study himself. Inbred 3x3 to 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy, an American champion sire and broodmare sire, he is out of Miner’s Secret, a mare inbred 3x3 to both A.P. Indy’s sire Seattle Slew (the 1977 American Triple Crown winner and also a champion sire and broodmare sire) and Mr. Prospector, a two-time American champion sire and the most influential American broodmare sire of modern times. The cross of A,P. Indy over Mr. Prospector and his line is responsible for all of A.P. Indy’s top North American sire sons, so Coal Front represents a concentration of a combination that has had quite a good history. In She’s Smoke, he met a mare line bred to Mr. Prospector (she has three crosses of Mr. Prospector at her fifth generation) but completely free of Seattle Slew and A.P. Indy. She’s Smoke also boasts a cross to Storm Bird, the broodmare sire of Stay Thirsty, which gave Haulin Ice a 4x5 cross to that fine racehorse and sire.

What in all of this genetic stew sparked to create a racer as good as Haulin Ice is a guessing game when all is said and done; we still know far less about genetics than we think we do, as new discoveries continue to add layers to the complexity of the study of heredity. The good news for all of us who are fans of the sport is that, after failing to make her reserve on a bid of US$875,000 at the 2025 Fasig-Tipton November sale, Haulin Ice will get one more season to display her talents on the track as an even more mature and seasoned racer. With any luck at all, she should continue to cement her position as the crown diamond of the Arkansas-bred program while winning new fans across the country.
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Mares on Monday: Will Lovely Bloodlines Be Enough to Carry Bella Ballerina to Kentucky Oaks Glory?

2/16/2026

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Some horses are born with golden spoons or the equivalent (golden bits?) in their mouths. Bella Ballerina would seem to be one such. Sired by a Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) winner out of a Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1)-producing dam and representing the same connections that won the Oaks with her half sister Pretty Mischievous in 2023, Bella Ballerina came into the world with every possible advantage. Being a horse, she does not blush for it. She simply does what a Thoroughbred is born to do: run. And so far, she has not put a foot wrong. Following a game score in the Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra (USA-G2) Stakes—a race also won by Pretty Mischievous—she is now three-for-three and has earned US$481,525 for owner Godolphin and trainer Brendan Walsh.

Bella Ballerina is more lightly raced than was Pretty Mischievous at this stage of her career, having made three starts to her sister’s five. Part of this may reflect the difference in their sires, as the stock of Into Mischief (sire of Pretty Mischievous) tend to be earlier developing than those of Bella Ballerina’s sire, Street Sense. To be sure, Street Sense was a champion juvenile before landing the 2007 Kentucky Derby, and his wins included the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (USA-G1) by a record 10 lengths. He also has a respectable record of siring winning juveniles, with nearly 24 percent of his winners earning their first victories as 2-year-olds. Nevertheless, his runners usually wait until at least the last months of their 2-year-old seasons to start making headway, in part because they on average need more distance than the Into Mischiefs. Into Mischief is a six-time champion juvenile sire (according to The Blood-Horse) for good reason, with almost 33 percent of his winners making their first scores at 2, and Pretty Mischief was 3-for-4 at that age with a win in the Untapable Stakes to her credit.

Still, although Bella Ballerina made but two starts at 2, she made them count, taking a Keeneland maiden special weight on October 5, 2025, and the Golden Rod Stakes (USA-G2) (a race in which Pretty Mischievous finished third in 2022) on November 29. It is worth remembering that the sisters’ dam, Pretty City Dancer, was also a good juvenile, dead-heating for the 2016 Spinaway Stakes (USA-G1), though she failed to progress from that victory and did not win again in seven starts as a 3-year-old. Given that Pretty City Dancer is a Tapit half sister to Lear’s Princess (by Lear Fan), who upset Rags to Riches in the 2007 Gazelle Stakes (USA-G1), her failure to develop further had to be a disappointment, especially given that her dam Pretty City (by Carson City) is a half sister to 1988 Bernard Baruch Handicap (USA-G1) winner My Big Boy.

As Bella Ballerina continues on the Fair Grounds path along the Lily Lane to the Kentucky Oaks—she will likely be seen next in the Fair Grounds Oaks, a race in which Pretty Mischievous finished second—the question now is how much upside she has. On paper, it should be quite a bit given her ancestry. Her Equibase figures are all in the upper 80s, however, showing virtually no progression. That might be good enough against this year’s Eastern filly division, which frankly looks like a rather weak bunch, but the California girls have posted figures more in line with previous years’ Oaks winners and as a group seem to be several lengths better than what Bella Ballerina has been facing. Blood may tell when the lilies are awarded on May 1, but another adage may prove out in the heat of competition: pretty is as pretty does.
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Mares on Monday: Unveiling a South American Branch of a Top American Family

2/9/2026

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​Last week was a good one for the late Into Mischief stallion Can the Man, whose progeny swept two top-level 1600-meter events for 3-year-olds at Brazil’s Gávea course on February 1 as well as picking up a Group 3 win in the same country on February 7. The leading lady in this series of successes was Veil, who got the better of a testing stretch battle to win the Grande Prêmio Henrique Possolo (BRZ-G1). The runner-up in Cidade Jardim’s version of the Grande Prêmio Diana (BRZ-G1) in her last outing back in November, Veil collected her second Group score and her first at the Group 1 level, adding another elite success to the record of a family that has been producing good horses in the Western Hemisphere for nearly two centuries.

Tracing back to the Irish-bred Vamp, who was imported to the United States in 1835, this branch of Bruce Lowe Family 1-o kicked into high gear through Friar’s Carse. Although she was a daughter of 1916 American Horse of the Year Friar Rock, who was commonly reckoned to be the best stayer of his day in the United States, Friar’s Carse took more after the speed commonly imparted by her maternal grandsire, Superman (a grandson of the brilliant Domino) and was considered the best American juvenile filly of 1925 in spite of a wind problem that prematurely ended her racing career.

Friar’s Carse was one of the few top-quality race mares put to the great Man o’ War during the latter part of his stud career, and she did not waste those opportunities. Her son War Relic, although vile-tempered and no better than the third-best 3-year-old colt of 1941—and it was not close between him and his superiors, American Triple Crown winner Whirlaway and the grand stayer Market Wise—managed to continue Man o’ War’s male line through his sons Intent and Relic, and his full sisters Speed Boat and War Kilt were both good race mares and important producers.

Anchors Ahead was also a full sister to War Relic but never made it to the track. She made up for that by producing three stakes winners, the best of which was 1944 Spinaway Stakes winner and stakes producer Price Level (by Sickle). Anchors Ahead also produced Honor Bound (by Bull Dog), another excellent broodmare whose foals included 1968 Widener Stakes winner Sette Bello (by Ribot), 1956 Westerner Stakes winner Count of Honor (by Count Fleet), and 1955 Vanity Handicap winner Countess Fleet (by Count Fleet), as well as the noteworthy broodmares Her Honor and Contessa Honora (both by Count Fleet).

Count Fleet, the 1943 American Triple Crown winner and Horse of the Year, was both a champion sire of racehorses and a champion broodmare sire, and Countess Fleet lived up to both sides of that heritage. She produced the good 1960s turf runner Flit-to (by Turn-to), the equivalent of a multiple graded stakes winner; stakes winner Sir Earl (by Sir Gaylord); and 1976 Sheepshead Bay Handicap (USA-G2) winner Fleet Victress (by King of the Tudors), dam of stakes winner Minstress (by The Minstrel). Unfortunately, Countess Fleet left only one other filly, the winner Fleet Empress (by Young Emperor), and while Fleet Empress did produce the minor stakes winner Band Practice (by Stop the Music), she did not seem a likely candidate to carry the line much further—especially after none of her seven daughters managed to produce a stakes winner.

The eldest of those daughters was the winning Advocator mare Queen’s Advice, who failed to produce any winners among her six named foals. This might have been the end of the story, except that her younger daughter, the Megaturn mare Pointe Du Bout, was exported to Brazil after being purchased for US$2,500 as a short yearling from the 1990 Keeneland January mixed sale. That was a turning point in the family fortunes, as Point Du Bout, a winner in her adopted country, first produced three-time listed stakes winner Charge Ahead (by Irish Fighter) and then the 1999 Trempolino filly Zimbamia, who won the 2002 Grande Prêmio Diana at Cidade Jardim. Point Du Bout also produced Tua Carina (by Our Emblem), dam of 2025 Grande Prêmio Proclamacao da Republica (BRZ-G2) winner Piu Carina (by Kentuckian), and Vestida de Noiva (by Dubai Dust), who produced Veil as her fifth foal.

As illustrated by the history of the family of Friar’s Carse, not every branch of even the best families will continue to produce at a high level. Some will be culled out from the better breeding programs, and most of those failures will continue to display why they became culls. Every now and then, though, one becomes a pleasant surprise. Point du Bout has been one such, going from bargain-basement yearling to Group 1 producer, and it can be hoped that Veil and Piu Carina will continue the upward trend, both in the remainder of their racing careers and as producers.


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Mares on Monday: On Time Girl Says "Yes, This Time" in Forward Gal

2/2/2026

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​If the cards keep falling into place for Not This Time, life may hand him a “yes, it’s time” for the spring Classics. Already the sire of impressive UAE Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-G3) winner Six Speed, the stallion added two more hopefuls for the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs on the last weekend in January at Gulfstream Park. After airing by 5¾ lengths in the Holy Bull Stakes (USA-G3) on January 31, Not This Time’s son Nearly moved into the position of the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (USA-G1) following the defection of Ted Noffey from the Derby trail. Two races earlier on the same card, his daughter On Time Girl gained credentials and points toward a start in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) with a three-length score in the Forward Gal Stakes (USA-G3).

Bred and owned by the Albaugh family (who also campaigned Not This Time as a homebred), On Time Girl improved her record to four wins and a second from five starts while overcoming reluctance to start and a less-than-ideal trip. Already the winner of a 6½ furlong stakes race over the Churchill Downs strip, she has yet to be tried beyond sprint distances, but on paper, there is no reason yet to think her a pure speedster.

On Time Girl is the second foal and first winner for Uncle Mo's daughter Girl Daddy, a mare the Albaughs acquired as a US$500,000 yearling from the 2019 Keeneland September sale. In a three-start racing career, Girl Daddy easily trounced a maiden special weight field at Ellis Park, scampered home by two lengths in the 2020 Pocahontas Stakes (USA-G3), and ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (USA-G1), two lengths and a nose behind divisional champion Vequist and Frizette Stakes (USA-G1) winner Dayoutoftheoffice, respectively. Her first foal, the 2022 Into Mischief filly Show and Tell, has not raced, and the mare’s only other produce is a yearling full sister to On Time Girl.

Girl Daddy is one of two winners from four named foals produced from the Unbridled’s Song mare Cara Marie, also the dam of a 2025 filly by Life Is Good. A Grade 2-placed stakes winner in her own racing days, Cara Marie is a half sister to Grade 3-placed listed stakes winner Abby’s Angel (by Touch Gold), whose gelded son Comicas (by Distorted Humor) won the 2018 Dubawi Stakes (UAE-G3), and to 2010 Irish Oaks (IRE-G1) runner-up Miss Jean Brodie (by Maria’s Mon). Cara Marie is also a half sister to Miss Ludy, whose daughter Ludy Lucia (by multiple Grade 1 winner Aragorn) won the 2017 Premio Copa de Plata Italo Traverso (CHI-G2), and to Twiggles (by Maria’s Mon), dam of multiple stakes winners Sweet Bye and Bye (by Sky Mesa) and Buy Land and See (by Cairo Prince).

Cara Marie, in turn, is out of the unraced A.P. Indy mare Miss Kilroy, a half sister to 2004 Davona Dale Stakes (USA-G2) winner Miss Coronado (by Coronado’s Quest), dam of 2013 Sharp Cat Stakes (USA-L) winner Arethusa (by A.P. Indy), and to multiple Grade 3 winner Karen’s Caper (by War Chant), dam of 2012 UAE Two Thousand Guineas winner Kinglet (by Kingmambo). The next dam in On Time Girl’s tail-female line, Miss Caerleona (by Caerleon), was a good staying filly who won the 1996 Cardinal Handicap (USA-G3) and placed in graded events at up to 1½ miles.

Overall, On Time Girl’s pedigree suggests that the 9 furlongs of the Kentucky Oaks should be within her scope, and trainer Brad Cox has indicated that she may start next in the one-mile Davona Dale Stakes (USA-G2) on February 28. This gradual stepping up in distance from 6 to 6½ to 7 to 8 furlongs is a rather old-fashioned approach for a modern trainer, but gradual development may be much the best approach for a filly whose sire and dam both had only brief (if highly promising) racing careers. One can hope that her reluctance to start in the Forward Gal does not reflect the development of a physical or mental problem that may bring her own racing career to a premature end.
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    I'm Avalyn Hunter, an author, pedigree researcher and longtime racing fan with a particular interest in Thoroughbred mares and their contributions to the history of the breed.

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