With her win in the Coaching Club American Oaks (USA-G1), Thorpedo Anna confirmed that she stands head and shoulders above the rest of this year’s sophomore fillies. Ordinarily, a top filly would probably go on to the Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland (USA-G1), remaining within her division, but Thorpedo Anna has been so dominant that Saratoga might have trouble even rounding up opponents willing to come out for second and third money.
Ruling out the Alabama left two other options on the table for Thorpedo Anna’s connections. One would be to await the fall Belmont at the Big A meeting to tackle older females. (Thorpedo Anna is ineligible for Saratoga’s major race for older fillies and mares on dirt, the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes, because that race is restricted to ages 4 and up.). The other is to tackle the best of the 3-year-old males in training in the DraftKings Travers Stakes (USA-G1). This is the option chosen by trainer Kenny McPeek, who announced his decision on July 27 following consultation with the filly’s owners.
Only seven fillies have ever won the Travers, and the last was Lady Rotha in 1915, who won via a controversial disqualification of apparent six-length winner Trial By Jury and was readily beaten in the Alabama five days later by Kentucky Oaks winner Waterblossom. The last filly to win the Travers on her own merits was Ada Nay, who waltzed home by six lengths in a year in which the race was contested at 9 furlongs, and 1895 winner Liza likewise won at that distance. Fillies actually had their greatest successes when the Travers was contested at 14 furlongs, winning four times during the years 1865-1876 over this testing distance; these heroines of the turf included Ruthless, who also won the inaugural Belmont Stakes over 13 furlongs.
To join this historic group of fillies, Thorpedo Anna must answer two questions. One, does she want the distance? She has done everything asked of her at up to 9 furlongs but has never been tried at a longer distance. Against other fillies, it seems likely that she could coast another furlong on class even if she doesn’t really want the trip. Against colts, that may not be an option. Her pedigree is inconclusive; although she comes from the family of Kentucky Derby winners Northern Dancer and Cannonade, her sire scored his marquee win at 7 furlongs; beyond that, she has a nice mix of speed and stamina influences without a strong leaning one way or the other. Essentially, one cannot say from her bloodlines that she cannot get 10 furlongs, but one cannot say that she will, either.
The other question is simply this: is she good enough? Her 105 Equibase speed figure from the Coaching Club American Oaks is up there with Dornoch’s recent performances (107 in the Haskell, 106 in the Belmont) and better than Seize the Grey’s career-high Preakness run (101). Sierra Leone has an average Equibase figure of 106.5 over his last four starts, while Mindframe has paired 105 figures in his last two starts. On paper, Fierceness is the fastest horse on the field, but his in-and-out pattern is concerning. If Thorpedo Anna moves forward off her Oaks romp, she should be right there in the mix provided that she has the mental attitude not to be intimidated by running with the boys. If she regresses even slightly, the chances are very good that she will be an also-ran.
Ruling out the Alabama left two other options on the table for Thorpedo Anna’s connections. One would be to await the fall Belmont at the Big A meeting to tackle older females. (Thorpedo Anna is ineligible for Saratoga’s major race for older fillies and mares on dirt, the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes, because that race is restricted to ages 4 and up.). The other is to tackle the best of the 3-year-old males in training in the DraftKings Travers Stakes (USA-G1). This is the option chosen by trainer Kenny McPeek, who announced his decision on July 27 following consultation with the filly’s owners.
Only seven fillies have ever won the Travers, and the last was Lady Rotha in 1915, who won via a controversial disqualification of apparent six-length winner Trial By Jury and was readily beaten in the Alabama five days later by Kentucky Oaks winner Waterblossom. The last filly to win the Travers on her own merits was Ada Nay, who waltzed home by six lengths in a year in which the race was contested at 9 furlongs, and 1895 winner Liza likewise won at that distance. Fillies actually had their greatest successes when the Travers was contested at 14 furlongs, winning four times during the years 1865-1876 over this testing distance; these heroines of the turf included Ruthless, who also won the inaugural Belmont Stakes over 13 furlongs.
To join this historic group of fillies, Thorpedo Anna must answer two questions. One, does she want the distance? She has done everything asked of her at up to 9 furlongs but has never been tried at a longer distance. Against other fillies, it seems likely that she could coast another furlong on class even if she doesn’t really want the trip. Against colts, that may not be an option. Her pedigree is inconclusive; although she comes from the family of Kentucky Derby winners Northern Dancer and Cannonade, her sire scored his marquee win at 7 furlongs; beyond that, she has a nice mix of speed and stamina influences without a strong leaning one way or the other. Essentially, one cannot say from her bloodlines that she cannot get 10 furlongs, but one cannot say that she will, either.
The other question is simply this: is she good enough? Her 105 Equibase speed figure from the Coaching Club American Oaks is up there with Dornoch’s recent performances (107 in the Haskell, 106 in the Belmont) and better than Seize the Grey’s career-high Preakness run (101). Sierra Leone has an average Equibase figure of 106.5 over his last four starts, while Mindframe has paired 105 figures in his last two starts. On paper, Fierceness is the fastest horse on the field, but his in-and-out pattern is concerning. If Thorpedo Anna moves forward off her Oaks romp, she should be right there in the mix provided that she has the mental attitude not to be intimidated by running with the boys. If she regresses even slightly, the chances are very good that she will be an also-ran.
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