Lemon Muffin had two things going for her, though. One was the lifetime of experience of D. Wayne Lukes, who well knows that fillies can make very rapid progress in the spring of their 3-year-old seasons—especially fillies that have already been showing significant improvement from age 2 to age 3 and that are still shy of their actual third birthdays. (For the record, Lemon Muffin was foaled on April 4, 2021.) The other was a pedigree that clearly cried out for two turns, embodied in a filly that had never been sent more than 7 furlongs. Both were vindicated when Lemon Muffin drew off to win by 3½ lengths, clearly relishing the distance.
Bred by Mr. and Mrs. Theodore R. Kuster and the Collected Syndicate, Lemon Muffin is from the second crop of the City Zip horse Collected, who turned in his best racing performances when defeating Arrogate in the 2017 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (USA-G1) and running second to American Horse of the Year Gun Runner in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic (USA-G1). Both races were over 10 furlongs, and it is worth noting that while City Zip never won over more than 7 furlongs himself, he emulated his ancestor Blushing Groom (the broodmare sire of his sire, Carson City, and a horse City Zip distinctly resembled) by siring a number of progeny that stayed better than he himself did, Collected among them. Collected’s top runners to date are Grade 2 winners Conclude, Kalik, and Taxed, who all took their signature wins over 9 furlongs.
On the distaff side, Lemon Muffin is the ninth foal, fifth winner, and first stakes winner from Pelt, whose sire Canadian Frontier (by Gone West) did his best running over 6 furlongs and whose half brother High Stakes Player (by the multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter High Brite) did the same, both being Grade 3 winners at the distance. Pelt, however, is also a half sister to stakes winner Mather Miss, who scored her black-type win over 8½ furlongs and had an average winning distance of 8.46 furlongs. Mather Miss was sired by 1991 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Black Tie Affair, a fact that furnishes a key to Lemon Muffin’s background: she comes from a line of mares that tends to produce according to the speed/stamina proclivities of its mates. Further evidence of this is provided by Mather Miss’s daughter Arch Mistress (by 1998 Super Derby, USA-G1, winner Arch), winner of the 1800-meter Yellowwood Handicap (SAF-G3) in 2005.
Pelt was produced from Fee, whose sire Spectacular Bid can scarcely be questioned as to his two-turn credentials; among his many other feats, the 1980 American Horse of the Year set a new world record of 1:57-4/5 for 10 furlongs in the 1980 Charles S. Strub Stakes (USA-G1). A half sister to 1992 Stephen Foster Handicap (USA-G3) winner Discover (by Cox’s Ridge), Fee in turn is out of the stakes-placed Mr. Prospector mare Find, whose dam is the Nijinsky II mare Veroushka. Find is a full sister to 1988 Gardenia Stakes (USA-G2) winner Gild and a half sister to 1984 San Marcos Handicap (USA-G2) winner Lucence (by Majestic Light), and Veroushka is a half sister to 1975 American champion 3-year-old male Wajima (by Bold Ruler) and 1970 Everglades Stakes winner Naskra (by Nasram).
Lemon Muffin will need to step up her game a bit further to match up with the top fillies of her crop, but she is headed in the right direction, and an extra sixteenth of a mile seems very unlikely to be a problem for her. It is also a good sign that, although her performance in the Honeybee was the best yet of her career, it was not such an advance on her earlier races at 3 that she seems likely to regress next out; her pattern suggests steady development rather than a fluke effort. In addition, Lemon Muffin showed the tenacity to overcome adversity in a roughly run race, a desirable trait in what is likely to be a large Kentucky Oaks field. Her next race is likely to come in Oaklawn Park’s Fantasy Stakes (USA-G3) on March 30, and her results there should throw light on her further progress at a crucial time of year.