Kicking Off the Triple Crown Trail

I don't think there's any argument that El Kabeir is a pretty nice colt. He now has two graded stakes wins to his credit and has shown he doesn't have to have everything go perfectly to do his stuff. So far so good. But how far -- now there's a question. While El Kabeir's sire Scat Daddy stayed well enough to win the Florida Derby (USA-I), there's a huge difference between being able to stretch miler speed over nine furlongs and getting that extra furlong in the Run for the Roses. Having Unbridled's Song, Formal Dinner, and Green Forest as the sires of the first three dams does not spell that kind of stamina to me, and the female line does not seem particularly stamina-oriented either. He could fool me, but I wouldn't be putting any early bets on this guy in the Derby book.