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2016 Triple Crown Trail: Gun Runner Fires a Warning Shot in Louisiana Derby

3/28/2016

There is nothing more exciting to a trainer or owner than a classy colt who appears to be making rapid progress in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby---Presented by Yum! Brands (USA-G1), and Gun Runner is providing all the excitement that Winchell Thoroughbreds, Three Chimneys Farm, and Steve Asmussen can handle between them. On the surface, the colt simply dominated his opposition in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (USA-G2) on March 26, drawing off to win by 4-1/2 lengths.

The win was visually impressive, but while this was a good effort from Gun Runner, it probably wasn't a Grade 1-level performance. After getting a perfect trip, he finished out the 9-furlong race a full second slower than older males took in winning the New Orleans Handicap (USA-G2) at the same distance three races earlier on the card. While the New Orleans field included several nice horses, none of them have any pretensions of being near the top of their division. Gun Runner's task was also made easier by the fact that Mo Tom was stopped cold while trying to come up the inside; had the Uncle Mo colt had a clear run, the race home might well have been more interesting.

On the plus side, Gun Runner's closing fractions were very close to those posted by S'maverlous in the New Orleans Handicap, and the colt got another confidence-building win without having too much knocked out of him. The question now is, what next? If he trains up to the Kentucky Derby, he will have a six-week layoff between races. That might be good, or it might cause him to lose sharpness. A run in the Arkansas Derby (USA-G1) would provide more seasoning, not to mention a shot at a prized Grade 1 win and the winner's share of another US$1 million purse, but would give him only three weeks to recover for the Kentucky Derby (USA-G1)---no problem after an easy win, but possibly fatal if he got into a dogfight.

Still, most owners and trainers would love to be facing this kind of dilemma right now, and Steve Asmussen does have the luxury of not needing another race to get Gun Runner a Kentucky Derby berth. That allows him to play things by ear according to Gun Runner's condition and physical development. But sooner or later, Gun Runner is going to face tougher competition and a less than ideal trip, and that is the point at which we'll find out his true caliber.

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Along the Lily Lane: Away From Songbird, Land Over Sea Cruises

3/27/2016

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For anyone not yet convinced that Songbird is the filly to beat for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1), Land Over Sea delivered further evidence that the champ is as good as she has looked by easily taking down a decent field in the Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (USA-G2). A well-beaten second to Songbird in her last two outings, Land Over Sea delivered pretty much the same cavalier treatment to her hapless rivals at the Fair Grounds.

While this is only the first stakes win and second win overall of Land Over Sea's career, her failure to gain more victories earlier is understandable given that she has spent her last five races chasing Songbird. She has actually been quite consistent, with four seconds and a third to go with her two wins from eight starts. It was only a matter of time before she got an opportunity away from her nemesis, and the fans at the Fair Grounds astutely surmised that her lack of wins after breaking her maiden reflected the company she'd been racing in, sending her off as a 9-5 favorite.

How Land Over Sea would have fared against the other top Oaks contender, Cathryn Sophia, is open to question, but she certainly ran like a solid Oaks hopeful at the Fair Grounds. That a filly this nice has been hopelessly outclassed by Songbird every time they've met should give everything else in the division pause for thought---and a good excuse for going somewhere that Songbird isn't.

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A Chrome-Plated Cup

3/26/2016

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In the ordinary course of things, one great champion succeeds another, older champion. That was the case last year, when American Pharoah picked up the torch from 2014 American Horse of the Year California Chrome and made it burn brighter than ever with the first Triple Crown sweep in 37 years. Pharoah, in turn, retired at the end of 2015, leaving the track clear for a successor---except that in this case, the successor is also his predecessor. Leaving no room for doubt as to whether he is back, California Chrome swept home in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) with complete authority, leaving much the best field assembled so far this year anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere reeling in his wake.

Chrome's domination was so absolute that it made his trip look easier than it was. Although he never had to check his stride for an instant, he was wide throughout on a deep track that tends to sap stamina, giving away lengths to most of his rivals. Yet when Victor Espinoza called on him, the horse responded with a surge that sent his saddle slipping backwards, forcing his veteran jockey to concentrate as much on staying aboard as on encouraging his mount during the last 300 yards. It didn't matter. Chrome was in control in a matter of strides, and he kept to business down the stretch, easing up only in the shadow of the wire with the race well in hand.

California Chrome will now get some R&R at Taylor Made Farm before returning to Art Sherman's barn, but he has served notice that any other horse targeting this fall's Breeders' Cup Classic (USA-G1) will have a huge obstacle in its path. For in California, all that glitters is not gold---it's Chrome.

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2016 Triple Crown Trail: Tapping on the Door

3/26/2016

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Tapit may not add a Kentucky Derby (USA-G1) win to his stallion resume in 2016, but if he doesn't, it won't be for lack of a strong hand going into it. He already had Mohaymen, who heads into a Florida Derby (USA-G1) showdown with Nyquist next week. Last Saturday, Cupid burst onto the Derby scene with a strong score in the Rebel Stakes (USA-G2). Today, Lani joined the party, edging the classy filly Polar River to take the UAE Derby (UAE-G2) for Japanese owner Yoko Maeda, who confirmed that Lani will become the second Japan-based 3-year-old to contest the Kentucky Derby.

Lani's form in the UAE Derby is difficult to read, given that the early pace in the race was a near-crawl. Polar River, clearly the class of the locally based horses, lost some ground looking for racing room on the outside but seemed unable to make up ground on Lani after she had a clear run. American hopeful Frank Conversation, a Grade 3 winner in the U.S. but clearly the second-stringer to Nyquist in his own barn, finished last, which may mean that he was beating up on weak competition in California, that he simply doesn't like dirt (his previous wins were on turf or all-weather surfaces) or that Lani is very good.

The last conclusion may be questionable, but if Lani fails to give a good account of himself in the Kentucky Derby---Presented by Yum! Brands, lack of stamina at least isn't likely to be the issue. Not only has the colt gone further than any of the U.S.-based contenders, but he did so racing wide throughout. He is also bred to go a distance. A half brother to two Japanese stakes winners over routes, he is out of a solid winner by 1989 American Horse of the Year Sunday Silence, whose wins included that year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes (USA-G1). His second dam, Irish-bred First Act, is by the great sire and notable stamina source Sadler's Wells and is a half sister to Dark Lomond, winner of the 1988 Jefferson Smurfit Irish St. Leger Stakes (IRE-G1). Lani's third dam, Arkadina, placed in three European Classics and is a daughter of another strong stamina source in the great Ribot, and the colt's fourth dam, Natashka, won the 1966 Alabama Stakes.

The main weakness Lani displayed in the UAE Derby is an apparent lack of foot. One-paced grinders have won the Kentucky Derby before, but the fact that the colt took as long as he did to wear down what looked to be rather moderate competition isn't promising. Nonetheless, his presence in the mix adds another dimension to Tapit's chances for scoring a win in America's most coveted Classic, as the stallion now has three colts with varied running styles heading to the starting gate. Wonder what the odds would be for a Tapit trifecta?

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2016 Triple Crown Trail: Gray Is the New Black

3/20/2016

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It looks as though gray is the new black for this year's Triple Crown hopefuls. After last weekend, the steel-colored Mohaymen and Destin were on everyone's short lists for the Kentucky Derby--Presented by Yum! Brands (USA-G1). They have now been joined by Cupid, who flew like a silver arrow from his namesake's bow to grab a probable Kentucky Derby starting berth in Saturday's Rebel Stakes (USA-G2).

With only four lifetime starts under his belt, Cupid is still short on seasoning, and he benefited from a lack of significant pressure on the lead. After getting away with a third-quarter breather in :25.29, he would have had to be a far less talented colt than he is not to have something left in the tank for the stretch drive. For a moment it looked as though the charging Whitmore might get to the bottom of him, but Cupid dug in, put that rival away after a brief duel, and pulled clear to the wire with Martin Garcia only shaking the whip at him in the last 70 yards.

Cupid probably benefited from the fact that Suddenbreakingnews found traffic trouble as well, but make no mistake about it: this is a colt who is bred to be a serious racehorse. The fourth stakes winner and third graded stakes winner out of his dam Pretty 'n Smart, he is by the best stallion in the country, Tapit, and is a maternal grandson of 1990 Philip H. Iselin Handicap (USA-G1) winner Beau Genius, as honest a racehorse as ever looked through a bridle.

The main question is how far Cupid really wants to go if he can't get an easy lead. While Tapit has gotten Grade 1 winners all the way up to 12 furlongs, all three of Cupid's stakes-winning half sibs scored their major victories in sprints. On the other hand, only Ashley's Kitty even started in a route race, and she did so only once---and as a daughter of Tale of the Cat, she figured to want shorter distances anyway. Pretty 'n Smart is a half sister to the staying turf mare Hostess (by Chester House), and the female line traces back to the stout handicap champion Gallorette, as rugged a mare as has ever graced the American Turf.

Besides the winner's share of a US$900,000 pot and 50 points toward a Derby starting slot, Cupid got the benefit of a genuine challenge in the stretch without having to put out the kind of gut-busting effort that could have knocked him backward. The question now is how much forward progress he has in him, and the Arkansas Derby (USA-G1) in four weeks may reveal whether he is truly a silver streak or just a flash in the pan.

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Friday Trivia Challenge for 3/18/16

3/18/2016

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Since Eclipse Award voting began in 1971, two horses have earned two American championships each by winning a single American race in their respective divisions in each year. Name them and the years and divisions in which they earned their honors.

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Seventh Sense Could Be a Turkish Delight

3/17/2016

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On March 12, Seventh Sense turned in a sharp performance in the fifth race at Santa Anita, a maiden special weight. That by itself wouldn't be too remarkable. He is, after all, a full brother to multiple graded stakes winner Reneesgotzip, a speedy filly whose five Grade 1 placings include a second in the 2013 GEICO Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (USA-G1). What is remarkable is the country code after his name: TUR.

Turkish-breds are still a long way from making regular appearances on American racetracks, but it was only a matter of time before the Turks turned out one capable of winning in good company in North America. Like Korea, Turkey has shown quite an appetite for American-bred bloodstock, especially stallions with high-class racing ability and at least some demonstrated ability to get winners. Both nations are on the same path to international racing success taken by other nations such as Argentina, Brazil and Japan: buy top racehorses if disappointing sires from countries already racing at the top level, leaven the stud pool with beautifully pedigreed animals that didn't quite come up to the mark on the track, and keep upgrading as improving success and finances permit. When you keep accumulating the best genes available in the breed however you can get them, sooner or later you're bound to come up with a horse capable of competing anywhere.

To be sure, Seventh Sense is only technically a Turkish-bred, having been conceived in the United States before his dam No Dress Code was exported to Turkey in 2012. He is not a top racehorse yet, either, though this maiden victory is certainly promising. He was a much more focused horse with blinkers added than in his first start, winning under a hand ride in the last 100 yards after peeling off opening quarters in 21.84 and 23 flat and then repelling a challenge by Giant Expectations. After that performance, he probably won't be going off at 7-1 in his next start. And if he continues to make progress, he just may make history by becoming Turkey's first North American stakes winner, marking another milestone for the Turkish breeding industry.

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Don Inc: New Life for the Domino Male Line?

3/15/2016

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The male line of the brilliant 19th-century champion Domino has always been clinging to existence by its fingernails. Starting out with a stallion who sired just 19 named foals, and whose best son sired just 27 foals, it has never been strong in numbers. Even in the 1930s through 1950s, when Black Toney, Black Servant, Blue Larkspur, Bimelech, Equipoise, Balladier and Spy Song were all active, Domino-line stallions represented only a small fraction of North America's important sires. By the 1980s, Domino's male line had essentually narrowed to just one stallion: 1971 Horse of the Year Ack Ack, who in turn got just one good sire son, 1994 American champion sire Broad Brush.

Broad Brush begot several Grade 1-winning sons, but 1994 Breeders' Cup Classic (USA-G1) winner Concern was a disappointment, Mongoose was exported to Peru after failing to gain much headway in Florida and Schossberg was exported to Chile from Canada. That left the fate of Domino's male line pretty much up to 2001 Pimlico Special (USA-G1) winner Include, who has sired 10 Grade or 1 Group winners during his career. That's not bad for his prospects of continuing the male line, except for two things: eight of the 10 are female, and Ferox earned his Group 1 status in Panama, which isn't much of a stud recommendation outside that country.

Include's latest Group 1 winner, though, has a chance to be Domino's link to the future. On March 12, Argentine-bred Don Inc prevailed in a wild three-horse finish to take South America's most prestigious race for horses aged 3 and up, the Longines Gran Premio Latinoamerico (BRZ-G1), which was run this year at Hipódromo de Gávea in Brazil. The colt (a 3-year-old by the South American calendar), had previously run second in the Gran Premio Nacional (Argentine Derby, ARG-G1) and the Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini (ARG-G1), so he was no stranger to top-level competition.

A product of one of Argentina's leading studs, Haras La Biznaga, Don Inc is the fourth Argentine Group 1 winner by Include, who has shuttled to Argentina from Airdrie Stud in Kentucky, and is the third out of a mare by the Storm Cat horse Bernstein. He is a half brother to Group 2-placed stakes winner Doubly Master (by Art Master); his dam is a half sister to Argentine Group 2 winner Batty Silvadora (by Batty) and Group 3 winners Batty Silbona (by Batty) and Forty Alondra (by Roar); and his granddam Saint Dove (by Saint Sever) is a half sister to 1980 Gran Premio Raul y Raul E. Chevalier (ARG-G1) winner Pajarraco (by Good Manners). That's pretty solid breeding.

Include is 19 now, and he probably won't have too many more chances to get a potential successor. Nonetheless, we can hope that he has now done enough through Don Inc to continue the cliffhanger story of the Domino male line through at least one more episode.

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2016 Triple Crown Trail: Danzing Into the Derby Picture

3/14/2016

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Saturday's racing action contained a marked contrast between East and West. On the East Coast, Destin consolidated his status as a legitimate Kentucky Derby---Presented by Yum! Brands (USA-G1) contender with a track-record-breaking win in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (USA-G2). On the West Coast, the expected contenders failed to deliver in the San Felipe Stakes (USA-G2). Instead, Danzing Candy propelled himself into the Derby picture with a front-running win over race favorite Mor Spirit.

Danzing Candy's victory leaves some question as to just how solid the West Coast 3-year-old division is in the absence of Nyquist. To be sure, the winner didn't run a bad race. While he was able to cruise on an open lead, he carved out legitimate fractions to do to. Nonetheless, this was no California Chrome-style performance of coming home fast and with plenty of gas obviously still in the tank. While Mike Smith had no need to press his mount hard through the stretch and didn't, he clearly wasn't going into cruise control either, and Danzig Candy's final 5/16 in :33 flat wasn't particularly impressive.

Of his defeated rivals, the consistent Mor Spirit obviously showed most, making up close to three lengths in the final sixteenth after swinging to the outside, but he will need to do more than that to contend with the top colts in the division. Exaggerator gave the impression of simply being not good enough, and Smokey Image was wide throughout and had nothing left in the stretch.

At this point, it looks as if Danzig Candy will face pretty much the same group of colts in the Santa Anita Derby (USA-G1) on April 9, and the extra sixteenth of a mile will be telling as to his Kentucky Derby prospects, especially if he doesn't get an uncontested lead. While his sire Twirling Candy was a Grade 2 winner at 9 furlongs and Grade 1-placed at 10 furlongs, he scored his biggest win at 7 furlongs, and the dam's side of Danzing Candy's pedigree is more suggestive of a miler.

Regardless of the Santa Anita Derby's outcome, the odds look pretty good that a colt coming out of Florida will be the Kentucky Derby favorite. It probably won't be Destin, but the powerful gray is now in an enviable position. He doesn't need any more points to make the Derby field; he has the bloodlines to say that 10 furlongs shouldn't give him any trouble; and he has the option of training up to the Derby or taking on one more prep (which he doesn't have to win) depending on how he progresses from Saturday's race. In a day when so many colts are on a tight schedule to get everything they need out of a couple of pre-Derby races, having that kind of flexibility to work with is a precious asset that shouldn't be overlooked.

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Along the Lily Lane: Sweet Move Toward the Oaks for Terra Promessa

3/13/2016

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With Polar River now officially out of the Longines Kentucky Oaks (USA-G1) picture no matter what she does in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2), Songbird appears to be down to just one serious challenger for the lilies in Florida-based Cathryn Sophia. Or is she? With her 6-1/2 length romp in the Honeybee Stakes (USA-G3), Terra Promessa now has three solid wins around two turns and appears to be a filly who's improving at the right time.

To be sure, Terra Promessa didn't look as effortless in taking down her Honeybee rivals as either of the Big Two were in their most recent victories. Some of that may be laid to the muddy track at Oaklawn, which like Churchill Downs, can have about the consistency of peanut butter when there's too much water for sealing the track to be effective. There's also Terra Promessa's personal style; compared to her peers, she still seems a little on the gawky side, and her low-headed mode of running can give you the impression that she's leveled out and is busting her gut when that isn't quite the case.

Nonetheless, this is a filly who appears to have a lot of as yet untapped potential. A deep-shouldered, deep-girthed individual rather reminiscent of old photos of Imp or Miss Woodford, she gives the impression of having excellent leverage behind, powering a long, low stride. As a daughter of Curlin, she should have no problems with nine furlongs and quite possibly more, even though the distaff side of her pedigree is tilted more toward speed, and she should continue progressing as she matures. That progress probably won't be enough to make her an Oaks winner, but it should make her an interesting filly to keep an eye on during the coming summer.

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2016 Triple Crown Trail: Gun Runner Fires a Warning Shot in Louisiana Derby

Along the Lily Lane: Away From Songbird, Land Over Sea Cruises

A Chrome-Plated Cup

2016 Triple Crown Trail: Tapping on the Door

2016 Triple Crown Trail: Gray Is the New Black

Friday Trivia Challenge for 3/18/16

Seventh Sense Could Be a Turkish Delight

Don Inc: New Life for the Domino Male Line?

2016 Triple Crown Trail: Danzing Into the Derby Picture

Along the Lily Lane: Sweet Move Toward the Oaks for Terra Promessa

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