Firing Line gained a lot of fans with his visually impressive score in the Sunland Derby (USA-G3) on March 22. He's a nice colt and deserved the win, but I can't help feeling that this race looked better than it was in spite of the fact that he set a track record while coasting at the end. This was a glib track that could only help a colt with good natural cruising speed (which Firing Line has), and the colt faced much weaker opposition than he will see in Louisville. His close-up seconds to Dortmund may also need to be taken with a grain of salt, given that Dortmund seems to be one of those lazy types who will only do what he must to get the job done.
Two other concerns with Firing Line are his pedigree and his schedule. On paper, he looks better suited to 8 or 9 furlongs than 10, especially since he lacks any proven sources of stamina close up. The same criticism could be made of several colts among the leading contenders, but Firing Line does not quite have the athleticism of American Pharoah or the long, powerful stride that Dortmund boasts when he gets in gear. When a colt doesn't have the raw reserves of stamina to simply grind a distance out, he needs exceptional efficiency to stretch his distance capacity. I'm not sure Firing Line quite has it.
Firing Line's schedule also looks less than ideal. He has enough seasoning from his duels with Dortmund to be mentally prepared for a big run at Louisville, but six weeks is a long time to maintain top mental and physical fitness without a race in between. Going into one of the major preps on two weeks' turnaround doesn't seem likely, nor does taking on Pharoah in three weeks in the Arkansas Derby (USA-G1). The Lexington Stakes (USA-G2), also in three weeks, might be a possibility but drops back in distance slightly, not necessarily what you want when building up to 10 furlongs.
Make no mistake about it, Firing Line has potential and could probably have beaten a substantially better field to grab his first graded stakes win. Nonetheless, this performance probably wasn't up to the standards set by either of the Baffert pair, and there are several potential stars waiting for the Florida Derby (USA-G1), Wood Memorial (USA-G1) and Louisiana Derby (USA-G2) to show what they can do. Those jumping on Firing Line at this point may have a good thing, but I think they'd be better off holding their fire.
Two other concerns with Firing Line are his pedigree and his schedule. On paper, he looks better suited to 8 or 9 furlongs than 10, especially since he lacks any proven sources of stamina close up. The same criticism could be made of several colts among the leading contenders, but Firing Line does not quite have the athleticism of American Pharoah or the long, powerful stride that Dortmund boasts when he gets in gear. When a colt doesn't have the raw reserves of stamina to simply grind a distance out, he needs exceptional efficiency to stretch his distance capacity. I'm not sure Firing Line quite has it.
Firing Line's schedule also looks less than ideal. He has enough seasoning from his duels with Dortmund to be mentally prepared for a big run at Louisville, but six weeks is a long time to maintain top mental and physical fitness without a race in between. Going into one of the major preps on two weeks' turnaround doesn't seem likely, nor does taking on Pharoah in three weeks in the Arkansas Derby (USA-G1). The Lexington Stakes (USA-G2), also in three weeks, might be a possibility but drops back in distance slightly, not necessarily what you want when building up to 10 furlongs.
Make no mistake about it, Firing Line has potential and could probably have beaten a substantially better field to grab his first graded stakes win. Nonetheless, this performance probably wasn't up to the standards set by either of the Baffert pair, and there are several potential stars waiting for the Florida Derby (USA-G1), Wood Memorial (USA-G1) and Louisiana Derby (USA-G2) to show what they can do. Those jumping on Firing Line at this point may have a good thing, but I think they'd be better off holding their fire.
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